- If Ruto, Raila and OKA are all in the race, chances are that we might have a run off.
- If they decide to go all the way to the ballot, it will not be that they want to win but to negotiate after the first presidential election.
If One Kenya Alliance stays intact to the end, various scenarios are likely to emerge.
Here, we are assuming that OKA will face off with the two main contenders for the presidency in 2022.
We have the Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga though the former Prime Minister has not yet officially declared he is running.
If OKA principals remain together, they will be a formidable force. I say this believing that OKA is positioning itself for a presidential run-off.
If Ruto, Raila and OKA are all in the race, chances are that we might have a run off. This is what OKA is interested in.
If OKA stays in the race, I do not think there will be a candidate who will meet the threshold of being declared the president; that is having more than half of all the votes cast in the election and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties.
I see OKA principals hoping for a run-off because it would give them a platform to bargain with the top two contenders.
The numbers are working against OKA when you compare them with the other two.
They have not been able to fully consolidate their backyards and the two rivals have been able to make inroads in their strongholds.
If they decide to go all the way to the ballot, it will not be that they want to win but to negotiate after the first presidential election.
It, therefore, means that President Uhuru Kenyatta has to whip OKA to his end because if the four principals decide to have negotiations with the Hustler Nation, that will be a done deal for Ruto and a serious mess for Raila.
We should also not forget the other group of politicians comprising Martha Karua, Mukhisa Kituyi, Justin Muturi and Kivutha Kibwana.
If this group forms an alliance and OKA continues to play hard to get, Raila or Ruto can decide to have negotiations with them.
OKA must therefore be very careful and move wisely towards 2022 elections.
Daniel Orogo, a political analyst spoke to the Star