- They are all under pressure not to back down from the presidential contest.
- President Kenyatta is likely to endorse Raila publicly leaving Oka in an awkward place.
The challenge One Kenya Alliance now faces is how to pick their presidential candidate and hold together.
The unfortunate aspect of our politics is that they are still build around tribal blocks. Before you get to any table, one must carry the tribal arithmetic as the foundation of starting negotiations.
Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetang'ula and Gideon Moi have their tribal blocks, which they have assured it is their turn to lead.
We have seen the Ukambani block telling Kalonzo that he has deputised ODM leader Raila Odinga two times and that he was President Mwai Kibaki’s Vice President and it is, therefore, his turn to go all the way to the ballot.
Among the Oka principals, Kalonzo is the more experienced in terms of age and even politically and that is why he is under such immense pressure to be a man and go all the way.
Mudavadi is also facing the same predicament. His supporters are pushing him hard not to back down for anybody.
Gideon Moi, on the other side, is positioning himself as the alternative to Deputy President William Ruto in leadership of the Rift Valley.
When you look at it keenly, the Oka principals do not have the backbone to withstand the pressure of a presidential race. That is why Uhuru has been keen to whip them to work with Raila.
From what we witnessed recently in Kibra, we are likely to have a Raila Tosha moment where Uhuru will publicly endorses him.
Where will this leave Oka? Its main players are Mudavadi, Kalonzo and Gideon Moi. I have a lot of respect for Wetang'ula but as things stand, he cannot call a national delegates conference because his party is split, less than a year to the general election.
How is he going to get endorsement as a candidate for Ford Kenya? Gideon has a soft spot for Raila, if you go by the comments he made during the Kanu delegates conference at Bomas.
If the Oka principals insist on producing a presidential candidate, I foresee a split in the coalition. Gideon will cross over to Raila's side.
The political and governance consultant spoke to the Star