• Most parts of Northeastern Kenya are already experiencing food stress, the government says.
• Usual conditions are expected over Northwestern Kenya and wetter than usual conditions in parts of Western Kenya.
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Rainfall from October to December will be dramatically less than usual as the drought worsens.
A climate occurrence bringing dry weather to Kenya appears to have taken hold.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is in a negative phase for the first time in five years, is expected to drastically reduce the rainfall.
The latest forecast for October predicts most parts of the country will receive below-average rains, with Northeastern Kenya likely to be the worst hit.
Temperatures in the Indian Ocean near eastern Africa usually oscillate between cold and warm. This year, the sea temperatures in the eastern region are cooler than usual.
The result is expected to be below-average rainfall in eastern Africa and heavy rains in Southeast Asia and Australia.
“However, there will be isolated incidents of storms that could cause flash floods despite the expected depressed rains,” Met director Stella Aura said while releasing the three-month forecast.
On Monday, the Igad Climate Prediction Centre released a forecast for October predicting drier than usual conditions for Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Tanzania.
“Authorities and stakeholders are advised to take appropriate measures to safeguard lives and livelihoods,” Igad said.
The usual conditions are expected over northwestern Kenya and wetter than usual conditions in parts of western Kenya.
October usually marks the beginning of the short rains season.
Kenya last experienced heavy rains this season in 2019 during a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Most parts of Northeastern are already experiencing food stress, the government said.
Last week, the state started distributing animal feed to pastoralists hardest hit by drought in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo counties.
Devolution CS Eugene Wamalwa livestock feed is being dispatched to the four counties.
Distribution is in partnership with FAO and WFP. They have given Sh380 million for animal feed, cash transfers to affected families, vaccines and boreholes.
“With internal mobilisation of resources and support from development partners, we were able to procure 32,000 bags of livestock feed," the CS said.
Each 50kg bag has contains range cubes to support pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the most affected counties, Wamalwa said.
The CS spoke on Wednesday last week when he flagged off truckloads of animal feed.
He said animal feed will also be going to the Coast in Kilifi and Tana River counties as well as Northern Kenya.
FAO Kenya representative Carla Mucavi said 10 counties are already in the alarm stage and require urgent support.
“Around 2.1 million people are in acute food insecurity and in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. Projections indicate this number can increase if immediate actions are not taken," she said.
(Edited by V. Graham)