• The July 15 by-election in Kiambaa follows the death of sitting MP Paul Koinange in March
• The Radio Africa opinion poll carries a margin of error of 4.4 per cent and was conducted in late June
Image: UDA Cmmunications
United Democratic Alliance candidate John Njuguna Wanjiku is the clear leader in the run-up to the Kiambaa by-election on July 15, according to a recently completed Radio Africa opinion poll.
However, the ground could still shift in the by-election because Jubilee is planning to pour resources into Kiambaa over the next week. The party is mobilising aggressively and is planning to send its heavyweights to the constituency before the election.
A majority of 54 per cent of Kiambaa voters said that they would vote for Wanjiku compared to 25 per cent for Jubilee candidate Njama Wainaina Karanja Kariri. Around 18 per cent said that they were undecided and three per cent said that they would not vote at all.
The Radio Africa opinion poll was conducted by phone between June 24 and 28 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent. The poll contacted 500 adults living in the five wards of Kiambaa.
Both Jubilee, aligned to President Uhuru Kenyatta, and UDA, aligned to Deputy President William Ruto, have plunged considerable resources into the Kiambaa campaign.
For Jubilee, it is considered a must-win election after the humiliating loss of the Juja seat in May, while a win for UDA would make Ruto the front-runner for the August 2022 presidential election.
Kanu decided not to field a candidate in Kiambaa so as not to undermine the potential vote for Jubilee.
The by-election for the Kiambaa constituency in Kiambu follows the untimely death of the sitting MP Paul Koinange from Covid-19 in March.
At this stage, the victory of Wanjiku seems highly likely because 64.2 per cent of respondents said they thought he would win "regardless of whom you will vote for as MP". Only 21.8 per cent thought Karanja would win.
The split of support for Wanjiku and Karanja was fairly consistent across different age groups and male and female.
The Jubilee candidate got his strongest support in Ndenduru ward (29 per cent) while the UDA candidate did best in Kihara (59 per cent).
However, Jubilee as a party is still relatively stronger than the candidate as 28 per cent said they support Jubilee compared to 39 per cent supporting UDA while 31 per cent said they support no party.
The Building Bridges Initiative also appeared to be hampering the Jubilee candidate as 43 per cent said they oppose BBI while 22 per cent supported it and 11 per cent did not care either way. Another 24 per cent said they did not know much about it.
The weakness of Jubilee in Kiambaa does not appear to be linked to the economic performance of the government, as 30 per cent of respondents said they thought the government had done a good job and 38 per cent an average job. Only 29 per cent said they thought the Jubilee government had done a poor or very poor job.
Unemployment (61 per cent) followed by the high cost of living (59 per cent) were the top problems facing respondents, who also complained about poor roads (33 per cent) and poor health care (24 per cent).
The priorities for the incoming MP should be fixing unemployment (26 per cent) followed by insecurity (11 per cent) and poor roads (9 per cent), according to the poll.
Potentially the Kiambaa by-election could have a high turnout as 57 per cent of respondents said they would definitely vote and 32 per cent said they would probably vote.
