Expect mixed weather patterns until April, says Met

Weather experts have explained why it rained last week while confirming that the worst of La Niña has already passed.

La Nina was expected to bring extra dry weather into Kenya and risk of drought. But the latest update shows it already peaked in October-November last year as a moderate strength event.

However, the World Meteorological Organisation still warned there is a 65 per cent likelihood remnants of the La Niña could persist through February-April.

The WMO said this means East Africa will experience mixed weather patterns until April. It said it is still early to predict how the long-rains season later in the year will be affected.

“Forecasts at long leads, and in particular those that extend through the boreal spring (March-May rain), tend to be less accurate,” it said in a statement.

"It is important to note that El Niño and La Niña are not the only factors that drive global and regional climate patterns, and that the magnitudes of Enso (El Niño-southern oscillation) indicators do not directly correspond to the magnitudes of their effects.”

The La Nina, which began mid last year, was responsible for the depressed rains during the short-rains season. January and February were expected to remain extremely dry, but this prediction has been broken by a series of rainfall episodes.

Last week, many parts of the country experienced rains, ranging from light to heavy rains in western Kenya.

Met director Stella Aura said the rains were caused by the shifting of the Congo moisture band into Eastern Africa countries.

“The shift is currently caused by the existence of depression (that is a deep low-pressure system) within the Mozambican channel (the area between Madagascar and Mozambique). This creates a pressure gradient causing the airmass to temporarily move eastward,” she explained in a statement.

Aura predicted sunny weather will return to most places this week. Apart from unpredictable weather, Kenya’s food security is also threatened by desert locusts, which have infested 17 counties.

Last week, the locusts invaded the Coast for the first time in 70 years because of Cyclone Gati.

“This is because the traditional locust migration was altered by Cyclone Gati that deflected mature swarms to coastal counties of Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi and Taita Taveta,” said Carla Mucavi, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization representative to Kenya.

She spoke on Monday during a high-level emergency desert locust meeting in Nairobi. Mucavi said this second wave may be more intense than last year's.

Early collective efforts are needed to control the swarms before the long-rains season when crops are in the field, Mucavi said.

Agriculture CS Peter Munya said more swarms are expected this month and next month. “We need to ensure these are controlled before the long rains since rains create an environment conducive for the desert locusts to thrive,” he said.