ODM’s Boga heading for huge win in Msambweni – poll

A Radio Africa Group poll has projected a landslide victory for ODM’s Omari Boga in the Msambweni Parliamentary by-election.

The poll gives Boga a commanding lead in all the four wards ahead of Tuesday's vote occasioned by the death of MP Suleiman Dori in March.

President Uhuru Kenyatta met Boga on Thursday while ODM leader Raila Odinga pitched camp in Msambweni to drum up support for his party's candidate.

According to the poll conducted on Wednesday, nearly half - 41.5 per cent – of respondents said they will vote for the ODM candidate.

The party has a 36.5 per cent following, way ahead of Jubilee (17.3 per cent), the Nasa coalition (3.6 per cent) and Wiper (3.1 per cent).

Independent candidate Feisal Bader who is backed by Deputy President William Ruto came third with 15.5 per cent of the voters.

Charles Bilali (Independent) and Sheikh Abdurahmann (Wiper) followed with 7.9 per cent and 5.3 per cent, respectively.

Ruto backed Bader after his Jubilee Party withdrew from the race in the spirit of the handshake between Raila and President Kenyatta.

Boga’s is expected to address the high cost of living, which is the main problem for 70.8 per cent of the respondents.

Slightly more than two-thirds of the voters (64.5 per cent) say employment and lack of job opportunities are the other major problems facing the residents.

Another 25 per cent are concerned about poor healthcare.

Other problems include corruption (23.6 per cent), increased crime (2.01 per cent) and poverty (17.2 per cent.)

According to the survey, Boga is poised to win by a landslide in all the four wards of Gombato Bongwe, Kinondo, Ramisi and Ukunda.

In Gombato Bongwe, 45.0 per cents of the respondents said they will elect Boga, compared to 15.3 per cent who backed Bader. Bilali got nine per cent support and Abdurahmann’s 4.5 per cent.

Boga also leads in Kinondo ward with 39.8 per cent, Bader has 12.9 per cent followed by Bilali and Abdurahmann with 10.2 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively.

Some 36.0 per cent of the respondents living in Kinondo ward prefer Boga compared to 13.2 per cent for Bader and 8.1 per cent for both Bilali and Abdurahmann.

In Ukunda, the ODM candidate enjoys the support of 42.9 per cent of the voters, with Bader getting the backing of 19.0 per cent of residents.

Bilali enjoys 4.8 per cent support and Abdurahmann 6.5 per cent.

However, the poll suggests a big percentage of the residents are still undecided.

Boga also enjoys the support of all age groups.

Some 11.7 per cent of respondents in Gombato Bongwe, 15.9 per cent in Kinondo, 21.3 per cent on Ramisi and 10.0 per cent in Ukunda say they are yet to make up their minds.

The opinion poll, done and funded by Radio Africa Limited, was carried out between December 4 and 9.

Some 775 residents aged 18 years and above residing in all the four wards were interviewed through computer-aided telephone interview (CATI).

The sampling was random and multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) spread across all the four wards in Msambweni constituency.

Interviews were done in English and Kiswahili.

“Sample split was guided by all adults age 18+ proportionate to size as per the IEBC electoral register as of August 2018,” the survey report reads

The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.5 per cent with a 95 per cent confidence level.

(Edited by P.O.)