• The latest model on the outbreak in Kenya does not project a 'second wave' but slightly raised infections because of relaxed health measures.
• The Ministry of Health warns the disease may peak again, if the public health measures continue to be flouted.
Image: Courtesy
Scientists appear divided on whether Kenya will experience a 'second wave' of Covid-19 infections.
Last month, the government warned of a possible 'second wave' should there be public laxity or relaxation of containment measures.
However, some studies indicate there is unlikely to be an implosion of infections and fatalities in the future.
According to the World Health Organization, the pandemic appears as a single, large outbreak with ups and downs - discounting the idea of a 'second wave.'
The latest model on the outbreak in Kenya does not project a 'second wave' but slightly raised infections because of relaxed health measures.
It suggests Kenya's curve will follow an exponential smoothing model, which assumes the future will be more or less the same as the (recent) past.
"The trends of Covid-19 new cases will...be raised slightly for Egypt and Kenya," says the study - Modelling and Forecasting of Covid-19 New Cases in the Top 10 Infected African Countries - which has not yet been peer-reviewed. It is displayed in the pre-print platform Medrxiv.
The study was conducted three weeks ago with the current trends in Kenya.
"Strong appropriate public health and social measures must be instituted on the grounds again," the researchers recommend.
TWHO does not talk of a 'second wave' in Africa but warns of possible flare-ups.
"The response in African countries needs to be tailored to each country's situation moving forward as we see different patterns of infection within a country," WHO Regional director for Africa Matshidiso Moeti said in a statement.
There is no agreed-upon scientific definition of the term “second wave”. It, however, implies transmission would have to be brought down to an extremely low level (end of first wave), then it would spike and result in a large increase in cases and hospitalisations.
Kenya's Ministry of Health has recently avoided using the term, but warned the disease may peak again, if the public health measures continue to be flouted.
“We will get another peak if we change things. If we stop doing the things we are doing, we are certainly going to get another peak and we don’t know how high that peak will be,” Health CAS Rashid Aman said.
Acting director general of Health Patrick Amoth also said there is nothing to prevent the infections rising again if public health measures are relaxed.
“We are making progress but we need to maintain these measures,” he said recently.
Kenya's reported cases have been dwindling, largely because of low number of tests after donors withdrew their support for mass testing.
On Monday, the country recorded 22 cases, the lowest since the pandemic struck the country in March, based on 595 samples, also the lowest ever tests by the Health Ministry.
The new infection raised the country’s caseload to 39,449. Four new deaths raised the country’s fatalities from the virus to 735.
Edited by EKibii