- Prof Anzala says the government has only tested and identified a small number of the people who have the virus.
- About 40 per cent will have been infected, recovered and built resistance.
About 18 million Kenyans are likely to be infected with coronavirus at its peak, a top virologist has said.
Omu Anzala, a virology and immunology professor at the University of Nairobi, said there was a silent infection spreading among Kenyans.
“We [government] have only tested and identified a tip of the people who have the virus. There is a silent infection going up and the curve will eventually peak and begin a decline,” Anzala said.
“About 40 per cent will have been infected, recovered and built resistance. That is natural history.”
The professor spoke on Citizen TV on Tuesday night.
“I fear the health system will be overrun. Nairobi is already overstrained,” he said.
He added that Mombasa county might be at its peak since it has maintained the same number of cases reported for the last three months.
“For Nairobi, we are yet to peak. We shall see different counties at peak in different months because of the issues of introduction and conduct of the virus. Mombasa in May, June and July reached its peak. We shall actually see Mombasa start to decline,” he said.
The professor said the peak period will depend on the ability to consistently test, identify cases, contact tracing and being able to see a sustained number of infections coming in through the period. This will be followed by a decline.
“We have to ensure counties are well prepared and then there will be no need of a lockdown. If in any county there will be in any locality an overwhelming of the healthcare system, increased mortality, then those counties must have restricted movement,” he said.
“Counties must be ready to contact trace, clusters or subcounties to indicate to us whether there are problems. If we also observe the government directives we will sustain the curve.”
Counties are expected to have strong management teams to identify and contact trace, a robust community engagement and risk communication so that the information can go to the lowest level for people to understand Covid-19 at grassroots to be prepared for the pandemic.
“Every county must have access to testing, public health measures such as distancing, sanitiser, isolation beds. We need oxygen and measures in place to protect health workers. Counties must be ready to report on a daily basis,” he said.
He added that only Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado counties are 70 per cent prepared.
“Eighty per cent to 90 per cent have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic. We are advocating for home isolation, but we must also monitor them. Mombasa is doing well. Most patients are in home isolation. This will save the health system,” he said.
Edited by Henry Makori