- If the government took no measures, the peak of infection would have been around June this year.
- The peak is expected in February -March next year if people follow government directives.
The government said the peak of Covid-19 infections may be in September but a new study projects longer – November or even later.
The study projecting a longer peak attributes it to people’s fatigue. They’re tired of wearing face masks, observing social distancing and staying at home when possible - all key in preventing spread.
It also attributes the extended problem to the relaxation of virus-control directives.
On June 6, the government reduced the curfew by three hours, now it’s from 9pm to 4am, and opened up restaurants with restrictions.
The report is titled ‘Recommendations on Covid-19 Prevention on Scheduling Return of Students to Campus’.
It says many people have stopped observing health guidelines, which will allow the virus to spread faster. The peak could be as far off as February and March next year if regulations are not followed, it said.
“If the government did not take any measures at all, the peak of infection would have been expected around June this year. The model predicts due to the measures the government took the expected peak of the curve has dramatically reduced and shifted to occur in February-March next year,” the report said. It was presented to the University of Nairobi senate.
“However, given the fatigue of the population and the government response in relaxing certain measures the peak is projected to have shifted backward to settle in November 2020.”
The study was developed by the UoN School of Mathematics and the Institute of Infectious and Tropical Diseases using data from the government.
“The UoN established that without the control measures, the disease would have picked up in mid-June and rapidly dropped by mid-September. With the current measures, the new peak is predicted to occur in September with a slower downslope to the end of the year.”
The report was presented by Ogana Wandera from the School of Mathematics and Thumbi Mwangi from the Institute of infectious and Tropical Diseases .
They are part of the UoN ad-hoc committee of eminent scholars that advises UoN on Covid-19 developments.
They added that the full mitigation scenario if maintained throughout moves the peak of the disease from July 2020 to February 2021.
“The model is used to make projections of the epidemic should measures be relaxed in the next presidential address during the first week of July; comparing reduction in the effects of current mitigation measures by 20 per cent, 40 per cent, 60 percent and 80 percent,” they told the council.
The models had predicted that government Covid-19 measures would push the peak to March or February next year.
“This a good sign that the intervention measures are working,” they said.
They said that the peak of infection would have been expected to occur somewhere around June if the government failed to take strict measures.
The model shows that additional relaxations of magnitudes of 20 per cent between October and December 2020 will not change the course significantly.
“There are marginal changes in peak and duration with 50 and 80 per cent relaxation though all predict endpoint by about 25 December 25, 2025,” the study said.
(Edited by V. Graham)