Vicious war for Western vote bloc erupts ahead of 2022

A vicious war for the control of the Western Kenya voting bloc has erupted ahead of the 2022 epic battle for president.

Political bigwigs, strategists and influential opinion shapers are fighting to win over the hearts and minds of the millions of voters from the Mulembe Nation – the Luhya community.

The leaders have been holding meetings, strategising and realigning to outdo each other in the battle that has since spilled over into the public arena.

According to the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census, the Luhya is the second most populous tribe with 6,823, 842 people after the Kikuyu, which has 8,148,668 million people.

Despite the massive numbers instrumental in shaping the country’s leadership, the region has never united politically or had an outright kingpin since the days of former Vice President Kijana Wamalwa (1944-2003).

Political analyst Martin Andati says Wamalwa’s demise left the community in disarray as none of the leaders at the time was psychologically prepared to assume the mantle.

“The community also mourned Wamalwa for too long,” he said, and needed to find a strong figure to replace him.

The lack of one acknowledged political leader has left the vote-rich region a free-for-all battleground, with ‘outsiders’ controlling a huge chunk of the votes in previous polls.

And, now, with the 2022 elections beckoning, politicians are in an all-out war to wrest the region away from others and into their own grasp.

Cracks are once again emerging among local leaders who talk of unity and the need for the Mulembe Nation to unite and play a significant role in government.

“We can’t come together [although] we come from the same region. We subscribe to different political ideals," Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, a vocal supporter of DP William Ruto, said.

FORD KENYA WRANGLES

DP Ruto, ODM leader Raila Odinga, ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi, embattled, deposed but fighting back Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang'ula are all playing cards to control the region.

A faction of the Ford Kenya party led by Kanduyi MP Wafula Wamunyinyi and his Tongaren counterpart Eseli Simiyu, Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and influential Cotu boss Francis Atwoli are also fighting for a slice.

Raila has controlled the region for more than a decade, with residents overwhelmingly voting for him in the last three general elections – from 2007 to 2017.

However, his support now appears threatened as leaders from the region – Mudavadi, Wetang'ula and DP Ruto and his allies – are coalescing to lock him out.

Mudavadi – Raila’s chief campaigner in 2017 polls and running mate in 2007 – has become a fierce critic of the ODM leader and has blamed him and Atwoli for the wrangles currently witnessed in Wetangula’s Ford Kenya. 

“…….. the mischief has been calculated at a number of meetings led by the leader of a Nasa member party, whose objective is to destroy and dominate everyone politically. In this, they have been aided by Cotu boss [Atwoli]…” he said last Sunday.

He has claimed that Raila was hell-bent on rocking parties and dividing leaders from Western region for his selfish interests in 2022.

Andati observed that Mudavadi is trying to be his own man and shed the Raila association, thus, his intense criticism of the ODM boss.

“It took Musalia a long time to assert himself. That is what he is trying to do. Immediately when Wamalwa died, Musalia should have moved in and filled the void. The loss in 2002 devastated him,” Andati said.

The ANC leader, who has publicly declared his interest in the presidency, has been working round the clock to rally the region behind him.

He has assembled a solid campaign machine and set up an elaborate nerve centre – Musalia Mudavadi Centre on Riverside Drive in Westlands, Nairobi.

HOSTS LUHYA LEADERS

Last week, Atwoli hosted more than 40 leaders from the region – among them five governors, Senate Speaker Kenneth Lusaka and Devolution CS Eugene Wamalwa.

In an apparent effort to influence the region to support the handshake between Raila and President Uhuru Kenyatta – ostensibly supporting a handshake candidate in 2022 – the leaders pledged to support cooperation between the two leaders.

In what was even more telling, the leaders picked Atwoli, Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and Devolution CS Eugene Wamalwa as the Luhya nation’s spokespersons on political matters.

“These leaders will be negotiating with the national government on development and other communities  in forming a new transformative Kenya that is all inclusive,” they said in a statement after the Atwoli meeting.

Atwoli is a strong supporter of the handshake and has been called a mouthpiece for the President and Raila.

He is a fierce critic of the Deputy President William Ruto and has openly advocated changing the Constitution to accommodate Uhuru when he retires in 2022, "as he is still young". 

Atwoli's meeting could, therefore, be seen as an effort to rally the region to back the envisioned referendum and also rally Western voters behind Raila in the  2022 race for president.

Oparanya, on the other hand, is a Raila confidant and his presence in the meeting could be seen as preparing the ground for the ODM leader to maintain his grip on the area.

But fighting to control the region, Mudavadi and Wetang'ula snubbed the Atwoli meeting, immediately dismissing it as divisive.

They accused Atwoli of coercing leaders and Western to follow a particular political path against their wishes.

PISTOL ON THE TABLE

Days later, the ANC boss and his Ford Kenya counterpart held a separate meeting at Wetang'ula’s residence in Karen, Nairobi. where they once again assailed Raila and Atwoli.

They said they were "coercing and putting a pistol on the table" to force them follow a particular political direction.

“What we are refusing is to be persuaded by a pistol on the table. We want to be persuaded by logic,” Mudavadi said in a meeting attended by DP Ruto’s ardent supporters, among others.

The meeting followed the removal of Wetang'ula as the Ford Kenya leader by a section of party officials led by Eseli Simiyu and Wafula Wamunyinyi. The latter was installed as the new party leader.

The ‘coup’ is reportedly part of the efforts to have the Lion party join the  Uhuru-Raila handshake vehicle ahead of the referendum and the 2022 polls.

“My community has a very small and simple saying. That when you live together with a partner, and one day you want to scratch your back where the hand cannot reach, you will invite your partner to help you scratch that spot,” Wetang'ula said.

“If the next day he or she has the same problem, and invites you to scratch where the hand cannot reach, and you turn round and say go and rub yourself on the wall, instead of returning the favour, then you are an evil, wicked, thankless, hopeless, reckless and unwanted person in any community,” he added. It was an apparent reference to Raila whom he supported in the last two elections.

University don and political analyst Macharia Munene said the Mudavadi and Wetang'ula are fighting to ring-fence their turfs from Atwoli, calling themselves the true representative of the region.

“Wetang'ula and Mudavadi are now willing to combine forces to fight for their positions which are threatened mainly by Atwoli as a proxy of some other forces,” he said.

The DP is too courting the region and has built a strong army of grassroots mobilisers and die-hard supporters – mostly MPs - to buttress his 2022 presidential bid.

The most vocal Ruto backers in Western are MPs Barasa (Kimilili), John Waluke (Sirisia), Benjamin Washiali (Mumias East) and Malulu Injendi (Malava) and former Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale.

Before the coronavirus pandemic, the DP had made inroads in the former Western province, with regular visits, especially to Bungoma and Kakamega.

Between August 2017 and June last year, Ruto visited Bungoma nine times and Kakamega 13 times.