- Nasa bigwigs in mind game to kill coalition ahead of 2022.
- Cooperation agreements with Jubilee seen as a launching pads for new alliance.
A plot is afoot to dissolve Nasa as affiliate parties strategise for a deal with Jubilee and the ‘big boys’ battle for President Uhuru Kenyatta’s favour.
The Star has established that at least two political parties – Wiper and Chama Cha Mashinani – are pushing to disengage from the moribund alliance and sign coalition and post-election deals with Jubilee Party.
However, for Nasa to collapse, at least three of the five affiliate parties must sign to leave the marriage.
Three Nasa co-principals – Raila Odinga (ODM), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) – are all fighting to get President Kenyatta’s endorsement for the country’s top job in 2022.
Another co-principal is Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula.
Then there is Gideon Moi of Kanu whose father, President Daniel Moi, nurtured Uhuru politically.
The four have gladly backed Uhuru in trying to politically annihilate Deputy President William Ruto and his allies.
Sources tell the Star the President faces a dilemma over how to compensate them for the political support that gave him a lifeline when Ruto wanted to render him a lame-duck President.
“Raila’s people are pushing him to get an assurance [from Uhuru] of 2022 support and not mere government largesse,” a source familiar with the intrigues said.
However, Mudavadi’s allies have been meeting with a section of Ruto’s allies in what appears to be a change of strategy.
The meetings have heightened speculation about a possible Mudavadi-Ruto alliance.
Mudavadi, the founder of Nasa, has rejected overtures for a deal with Jubilee.
He has met Uasin Gishu Governor Jackson Mandago, Sirisia MP John Waluke and is reported to have lined up other meetings.
Yesterday, Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo Jnr, a key Kalonzo ally, told the Star that Wiper was out to achieve a long-term coalition agreement with Jubilee.
“The immediate one is cooperation and the long term will be a coalition and that will be considered as we go along,” the senator said.
Kalonzo let the cat out of the bag on Friday when he revealed Wiper was on its way to signing a post-election coalition agreement with Jubilee.
“At the same time, the NEC [National Executive Committee] resolved that a National Delegates Conference shall be called in the near future to endorse the formation of a coalition between Wiper, Jubilee and Kanu,” a Wiper statement read.
Over the last two weeks, Kalonzo has held separate meetings with Wetang’ula and Isaac Rutto.
He has also held similar talks with Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, who earlier this month sealed a post-election coalition with President Kenyatta.
However, it has emerged that signing post-election deals with the ruling party would have sweeping adverse effects on parties occupying minority leadership positions in Parliament.
Courtesy of Nasa, Wiper holds senior positions in Parliament, which would be lost if it crosses over to the majority.
Kathiani MP Robert Mbui is the National Assembly Deputy Minority leader while Makueni Senator Kilonzo Jnr is the Minority Whip.
CCM on May 14 also announced that a post-election coalition agreement with Jubilee was in the offing.
This followed a meeting between Rutto and the President at State House on May 13.
“Chama Cha Mashinani is working on a post-election coalition with Jubilee. The party leader Isaac Rutto met President Uhuru Kenyatta and agreed in principle that the two parties work together in the interests of peace, cohesion and development in the country,” CCM said in a statement.
However, Rutto yesterday tactfully told the Star CCM will enter a cooperation agreement with Jubilee and not a post-election coalition deal as the party is still a Nasa partner.
“We are entering a cooperation deal with the Jubilee coalition for the remaining term. Each of the Nasa parties is free to cooperate with others,” he said.
There are claims Ford Kenya is also in secret talks with the President and will soon unveil how it would work with Jubilee.
These deals could isolate Mudavadi.
Yesterday, Ford-K secretary general Eseli Simiyu appeared to deny the party is in talks with Jubilee for a possible agreement but admitted that there could be new alliances going forward.
He said the country’s current situation calls for cooperation among key players to surmount many challenges such as Covid-19, unemployment and food shortages.
“Ford Kenya is in Nasa but we are exploring options; we would be averse to antagonise what the country is facing at the moment,” he said.
On Friday, Wetang’ula voted for the removal of Deputy Speaker Kithure Kindiki in a motion backed by President Kenyatta.
Mudavadi has expressed strong reluctance to enter any form of agreement with Jubilee, saying he might inherit the ruling party’s ills and taint his 2022 presidential prospects.
“It is still early, but wait until next year when we will have significant political realignments and new coalitions formed towards the next elections,” he said last week.
Raila Odinga’s ODM party is said to have rejected signing a post-election coalition agreement with Jubilee and would be working together with it under a cooperation agreement.
The Star has established ODM was keen to continue playing its opposition role in Parliament and enjoy minority benefits while at the same time dining at the Jubilee table.
Fearing the massive implications of being the first one to pull the plug by leaving Nasa, despite occasionally declaring it dead, ODM is said to be hanging on to the moribund outfit.
But ODM treasurer Timothy Bosire told the Star the President may have whatever arrangement, provided it guarantees national unity, entrenches accountability, delivers a resilient economy and tangible quality of life.
“The country is facing a difficult moment. If the President chooses to work with other leaders who have a national focus to help him, then we wish him all the best,” he said.
President Uhuru has launched an onslaught against Ruto and his allies and some analysts say an alliance likely to be cobbled together soon could annihilate his 2022 presidential ambition.
His key allies in leadership positions in Parliament, including Kithure Kindiki, Kipchumba Murkomen and Susan Kihika, have been victims of the President’s war with the DP.
More of the DP’s allies in the National Assembly are targeted in a grand housecleaning next month when they return from recess.
Yesterday, CCM’s Rutto told the Star the new unity would spur the necessary momentum for constitutional changes.
“Remember that I have been all along a proponent of constitutional change. Now that I have a team spearheading that, led by the President himself, we are ready to bring the reforms,” Rutto said in a phone interview.
Political analyst Beauttah Omanga said if the big guns unite, then they would be able to block Ruto in 2022.
“Anything less will easily see him sail through. Ruto’s advantage is that he’s a huge and a smart grassroots mobiliser compared to his critics. A common campaign strategy will do, not merely folding parties,” Omanga said.
He said the new alliance being pushed must first agree jointly on a 2022 flagbearer in advance and then go out to the grassroots to meet voters as Ruto is doing if they are to beat him.