• Narok rally gave a clear indication that not all regions were going to read from the same script.
• The Eldoret rally may turn out to be a very bitter anticlimax for the BBI rollercoaster.
Image: DENNIS DIBONDO
The so-called BBI train is in the final leg of its validation public forums.
Without brakes, as the driver has described it, the train is hurtling down into the unpredictable Rift Valley in this final phase.
Governors have worked in overdrive to ensure the success of the past rallies, as regional leaders led residents in town hall meetings to prepare resolutions presented at the rallies.
The Narok rally, however, gave a clear indication that not all regions were going to read from the same script. There was a departure from what appeared to have been pre-agreed resolutions.
Kitui rejected the three-tier government to the consternation of the BBI brigade.
It is, however, the Nakuru and Eldoret forums that give a clear picture of what to expect in the Rift Valley. The Eldoret rally was cancelled and the Nakuru one pushed to March 31.
Deputy President William Ruto has not concealed his disdain for the BBI. At best, he has halfheartedly supported it in principle but in most circumstances, he has hasn't missed a chance to disparage proponents of the BBI.
Initially, he gave the forums a wide berth, but later changed tack and his lieutenants have been attending as delivering their message.
The BBI team can dismiss the efforts of Senator Kipchumba Murkomen and Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria as water drops in an ocean but in terms of political reverse osmosis, the duo has caused significant erosion in BBI credibility.
They have also infused negative energy into the momentum of the BBI tsunami. Murkomen has exploited his exalted position as the Senate Majority leader to have a chance to speak as far as protocol is concerned.
He has timed his arrival to cause unnecessary protocol hitches and seems to have a cause and residual support. On Saturday, he walked out of the BBI meeting with Moses Kuria, taking away a considerable number of attendees.
He must have learnt these disruptive skills from Kuria. I remember Kuria when we served with him in SONU’92 leadership. He was always disruptive, as he is today. He was our treasurer while Kabando wa Kabando was the chairman.
Murkomen and team have been able to pull such daring moves in areas perceived to be BBI strongholds. One then shudders to imagine the level of embarrassment that the BBI brigade will be subjected to once they roll down into the Rift Valley.
The DP enjoys near-fanatical following in the North Rift. It is Ruto's hometown and residents feel they are a heartbeat away from the presidency except for the BBI. This means the Eldoret rally will be under Ruto's firm grip. If he chooses to attend, then he will determine the process and outcome of the rally.
If he chooses to send his foot soldiers, there will most likely be chaos and the BBI team will spend most of their time calming restless crowds.
Consequently, the Eldoret rally may turn out to be a very bitter anticlimax for the BBI rollercoaster.
Things are not going to be any different in Nakuru. The town is cosmopolitan and home to the majority of Kenya’s communities with a high appetite for land. They are strong proponents of the sovereignty and sanctity of private property ownership.
Nakuru neighbours Narok, whose Senator Ledama Olekina is under probe for inflammatory remarks regarding land ownership during the BBI rally in the county. Many absentee large landowners in Narok are from Nakuru and any talk of expelling such landowners directly targets them. This is further compounded by the perennial Mau complex reclamation. Raila and company will face an uphill task convincing residents and leaders that BBI will safeguard their business and property interests.
At the initial stages of BBI, deliberate efforts should have been made to woo DP Ruto to support the process. These efforts should have been made public so that he would have been cornered and painted in a bad light for being against nationalist agenda. Instead, the BBI team allowed the DP the unnecessary latitude to play Russian roulette with a product of painstaking sacrifice by Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga.
He has been able to use BBI to remain in the media limelight by playing the victim card masterfully. His henchmen strategically arrive late for these events and deliberately create the impression that they have been denied seats. They play to the gallery by projecting the image of leaders being humiliated by their colleagues.
The public, to some extent, appears sympathetic to their apparent suffering. The divisions preceding the Mt Kenya rally at Kinoru Stadium and the ululation that Murkomen and Kuria received as they walked out of the venue are pointers to bad returns. They are becoming bolder as the BBI process approaches their home ground and stronghold.
The Kanu brigade in the Rift Valley is currently not in a position to countermand the Ruto juggernaut at home. The hostile reception that the BBI team will receive in Eldoret is almost assured.
North Rift team leader Governor Alex Tolgos must have had sleepless nights on how to convey the message to the BBI principals. Therefore, Raila and team may wish to consider another rally in Kisumu and a mammoth one in Nairobi to ameliorate to negative poisonous outcomes of the Eldoret rally.