Expect more political fireworks, daggers in 2020

If you're hoping for more rationality and lower political temperatures in the New Year, you'll be disappointed.

It doesn't take a crystal ball to predict more rough-and-tumble politics, scheming and desperate campaigning. 

Though the general election is two years off, swords are still brandished and daggers wielded in stealth by political players as the succession race gets down to the wire.

Politicians and analysts project that 2020 will be decisive for a myriad of issues that will influence the 2022 General Election.

Implementing the Building Bridges report, fixing the sluggish economy, addressing the worsening crisis of joblessness and firming up President Uhuru Kenyatta's legacy — and of course, the presidential lineup — will highlight the year.

“The year 2020 is the only spare year we have to carry out a lot of reforms, be they in the Executive, Parliament or the policy level. The year 2021 will be a campaign year,” National Assembly Majority leader Aden Duale said.

The Garissa Township MP said the Jubilee Party would focus on addressing the public outcry and dismay over dismal prospects, high prices, lack of jobs and development. Fixing the economy, creating jobs and putting the party's house in order will be high priorities, he said.

“I expect President Uhuru Kenyatta to be very firm on his legacy agenda, redirecting the country to focus on his legacy projects,” he said. His Big Four are affordable health care, manufacturing, food security and affordable housing; optimists say they will begin to take shape.

Bomachoge Chache MP Alpha Miruka said the 2022 presidential battle will be won or lost in 2020.

"This will be the year when it becomes clear who are the frontrunners in the succession matrix," he said.

Opposition chief Raila Odinga's political camp has signalled that the new year will be ideal to push for more reforms.

Raila's brigade wants key issues of the BBI task force report — such as the position of a prime minister, weak or strong — addressed before the real electioneering period kicks in.

Siaya Senator James Orengo asked the country to prepare for a review of the Constitution next year, saying it was the right time to reexamine the 2010 document.

"Constitutions are reviewed regularly across the world to enable the countries better serve the citizens to achieve their desires," he said.

Amani National Congress party leader Musalia Mudavadi warned politicians against sacrificing Kenyans at the altar of political expedience.

“Indeed, the year 2020 should be the year of the Mwananchi. All conversations and debates, including on BBI, should place the citizen at centre stage,” Mudavadi said in his New Year's message to Kenyans.

He deplored that in 2019 Kenyans bore the brunt of what many called a mismanaged economy, making it almost impossible for many of them to access a job, decent food, shelter and clothing.

“Going forward, correction of the draining hardships in the country must be prioritised. The government has its assignment properly cut out,” Mudavadi said. He regretted that layoffs, rising unemployment, retrenchment and business collapses and closures roiled 2019.

Raila has said 2020 will be a crucial period when the issues proposed by the BBI team would be firmed up and addressed well before the 2022 General Election.

"From next year, we will have a robust debate on BBI recommendations. They are not cast in stone. We will be open to any proposal so that what is implemented is agreeable to all," Raila said in his Christmas message.

On Tuesday, Deputy President William Ruto, who has been accused of heightening political temperatures in 2019, called for tolerance in 2020.

"It is my belief that political leaders can have divergent opinions without necessarily causing division, tension and animosity among the people," the DP said in his goodwill message to Kenyans.

Ruto said leaders should focus on the vital work of moving Kenyan forward, creating opportunities and transforming lives.

"The government will continue with the implementation of the Big Four agenda and providing the best possible environment for all of us to thrive," Ruto said.

Building political alliances and strategising for the post-Uhuru era will likely dominate the year.

Ruto, Raila, Mudavadi and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka are some of the political bigwigs likely to play a central role in the succession politics.

The BBI report, which has triggered a political storm, will influence the 2022 political formations with battle lines already drawn pitting Uhuru-Raila and Ruto supporters against each other.

Yesterday political analyst Felix Odhiambo told the Star that the new year will herald a flurry of political debates that will help shape succession politics.

"People like Kalonzo and Mudavadi must declare their 2022 political ambitions. With the referendum coming, the 2022 formations will crystalise in the new year," he said.

Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambu said Kenyans should be ready to be told the truth about national politics.

"We will speak the truth. We will speak it forcefully. We will speak it well and we will speak it wide," the MP  said. He is the leading Ruto critic in Central Kenya.

The year 2019 was tough many Kenyans surveyed cited the high cost of living and unemployment as problems that took a heavy toll.

According to an end-year poll by Trends and Insights for Africa (Tifa), nearly half of Kenyans (48 per cent) said 2019 was a bad year, despite the official positive statistics.

Only 17 per cent of the country’s population said the year was good.