• Aura warned the downpour will be stronger than what Kenyans experienced in October.
• Flooding may be experienced even in areas which may not necessarily be raining due to heavy rainfall elsewhere.
The weather department has warned Kenyans to brace for heavier rains this month.
There may be some dry spells this week and the next, but stronger winds and more torrential rains are expected as the month progresses, says Stella Aura, the director of the meteorological department.
She warned the downpour will be stronger than what Kenyans experienced in October.
"This coupled with the already saturated grounds is likely to continue causing floods and landslides in affected parts of the country," Aura said in a statement.
Most stations received record-high rains last month. For instance, Mombasa, Msabaha, Embu and Moyale recorded 470 per cent, 468 per cent, 248 per cent and 357 per cent of their long-term mean rain respectively.
Aura explained that the projected heavy rain in November is triggered by an unusual warming of the sea on the East African coast, a phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole.
"A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole, that is currently +2.06 degrees, is quite favourable for enhanced rainfall in the country," she said.
The forecast is good news for farmers who planted their crops last month.
Areas around Lake Victoria and the Rift Valley highlands will experience heavy storms more frequently, especially in the afternoons and evenings throughout the month.
These areas comprise Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia counties.
Aura said Nairobi and Central Kenya counties will also receive record rains.
"The expected total amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for November," she said.
This region comprises the city, Embu, Nyeri, Kiambu, Meru, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Murang'a, and Tharaka counties.
"Flash floods are also likely especially in urban centres with poor drainage. Continuous rainfall may cause landslides and mudslides in hilly areas especially in Central Kenya," Aura said.
She noted that the beginning of the month is likely to have reduced rainfall but to increase as the month progresses.
The coastal counties of Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale will receive rainfall higher than the long-term average amounts for November.
North-western region (Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu) will also receive heavy rains accompanied by strong winds, leading to flash floods.
Aura said flooding may be experienced even in areas which may not necessarily be raining due to heavy rainfall elsewhere.
North-eastern region (Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo) and South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta) will also receive higher than the long-term average for November.