EXPERT COMMENT: I don’t see a presidential election in 2022

An election clerk in Mombasa organises polling material a day ahead of the general election, August 7, 2017. /REUTERS
An election clerk in Mombasa organises polling material a day ahead of the general election, August 7, 2017. /REUTERS

Given the clamour for referendum and amendment of the Constitution, I don't think there will be a presidential election in 2022.

If we insist on the 2022 presidential race, we might be assuming a seat that will not be in existence by that time, and we might be actually discussing such a matter in futility.

What I expect is a referendum so that we can go into a parliamentary system. So, the issue of who one is supporting for President in 2022 may actually be rendered irrelevant.

And by that time, we may probably be talking about the party that will win the election, and who will become the Prime Minister. That is what I foresee. Not who is supporting who, and who will be President.

I also foresee a coalition arrangement or merger arrangements for parties so that they become bigger and significant to take power.

What people should ask themselves is whether, in the likelihood that there is a referendum and there are constitutional amendments, will ODM be running on its own or will it merge with Jubilee? What are the various configurations of political parties that are going to arise?

I think the best thing for the country would be for all parties to converge into two or three maximum strong political outfits. And I see that happening eventually.

In the spirit of sustainable peace, I think it is important for parties to merge and at the same time, it is also imperative that we have strong opposition because, unfortunately, a government that does not have opposition no matter how good it is will eventually degenerate. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

The referendum should happen next year because we are not making a new Constitution. We are only amending it.

We are finishing with census this year and we can thus conduct a constitutional amendment the other year so that it is settled by 2022.

By the end of the day, Kenyans vote as individuals and I hope they are not going to change from that in 2022.

That is when we can assume there will be an election in 2022.

I, however, don’t see us having a presidential election then.

Kagwe is former Nyeri senator. He spoke to the Star