Musalia Mudavadi’s team seems to think that the best way he can become President is by having a running mate from Central Kenya. He did it before with Jeremiah Kioni in 2013 and he is likely to do it again.
If you had the whole of Mount Kenya, then you would be assured of six million votes as per the 2017 General Election. If you top up those numbers with with the Luhya votes — if he were to get them as a block — then it would mean that Mudavadi is a strong contender contender for the presidency.
However, the gravitas is really with Uhuru and Raila because that is the crux of the matter. If the two were to rally their communities together, then that would be a fait accompli since they are the two centres of political activation in Kenya.
There are five major tribes in Kenya — the Kikuyu, Luo, Akamba, Luhya and Kalenjin. I am very deliberate about that because even if you look at the Luhya and the Kalenjin, they are a tribe with many small sub-tribes. The true homogeneous groups of people are the Kikuyu and the Luo.
As for Musalia, he had made really made good progress with regard to being on his own when he founded Nasa, until he failed to appear at Uhuru Park for Raila's 'swearing-in'.
He has been a lonely voice in the opposition but it has not yielded the gravitas that we would actually mean he is a de facto leader, and filling the vacuum that comes with his role in the opposition. The people are with Raila Odinga, even though some have misgivings about the handshake.
For Musalia, personally I think he is trying. It remains yet to be seen because we are seeing emerging contenders like Wycliffe Oparanya, who has a very good track record of approval. So he doesn’t seem to have a very good history with regard to being trusted with the country.
But he is a safer bet when there is a lot of contest between two opposing camps. But you also have to deal with Kalonzo Musyoka who is playing safely into the handshake so far.
The nominated senator spoke to the Star