Electoral competition for executive and legislative offices are the ultimate hallmarks of a functioning democracy. Since 1963, Kenya has had competitive elections for legislative positions but it was only from 1992 that the presidency has been sought competitively.
To be sure the main difference between democracy in Kenya and, say, Ugandan and Tanzanian is that there is no real competition for the presidency in the latter two countries since the candidates of Chama Cha Mapinduzi or the National Resistance Movement always win. It is easy to take for granted the fact that Kenya has been holding competitive presidential elections for three decades now, but recent trends in countries such as Poland and Hungary show that it is possible for an election to be won long before polling day.
Thinking about the 2022 presidential election, there is a high likelihood that the contest could very easily be a coronation of Deputy President William Ruto, rather than a real election, and it seems to me this is what the early campaigns-cum-development tours are all about. This is not hyperbole. Consider that by 2022 Raila Odinga will still be a political lion but an aged and wounded one, bearing all the heroic scars of old battles but with little capacity to fight new ones. In the absence of Raila and Uhuru Kenyatta, who is legally barred from contesting for the presidency again, Ruto will be the proverbial lion in the jungle full of cats and invariably only he could be king.
No doubt in 2022 the presidency is likely to be contested by candidates from Ukambani and Luo Nyanza, but this might not be enough to prevent a Ruto coronation unless the Jubilee Party disintegrates and Uhuru throws his weight against Ruto. Since politics is a game of numbers, it is reasonable to pose: Where are Ruto’s numbers to make the 2022 contest a coronation?
The long and short answer is this: The Luhya Nation. Three decades ago the Luhya were the third-largest community after the Kikuyu and the Luo. Today the Luhya are the second-largest community and with a significantly higher birth-rate than the Kikuyu. Officially the Luo are the fourth-largest community but it should come as no surprise if the Akamba upstage them in the next census. In the last three elections it is the Luhya vote more than any other that accounted for Raila’s political dominance. If Raila decides to contest in 2022 he must keep the Luhya vote to be competitive at all and if he loses it he will not be a political lion at all, let alone an old, wounded one.
Experience in African elections shows that it is easy for an opposition candidate to win when the incumbent president is not running. In the past politicians from the Mulembe nation have cried themselves hoarse about their determination to unite and grab the presidency. Given the political voting power of the Luhya and its geographical spread, the presidency is a valid dream for them but surely this is not possible when so many of its sons like playing second fiddle to their neighbours’ sons.
In the past the lack of serious presidential ambitions in the Luhya nation has served Kenya well in three respects. First, in sharing out their numerous votes among non-Luhya candidates, it has been possible for the eventual winner to project a national face. Second, for such a big nation to eschew presidential ambition as a matter of life and death, the Luhya have helped to moderate our politics and spared Kenya the risk of ethnic fragmentation. Third, by gladly accepting to be the political food kiosk that serves ugali saucer, the Luhya have made our democracy meaningful since in their land it is possible to get some votes on merit.
Yet it is the ugali saucer character of Luhya politics that makes me wonder whether the 2022 election will be competitive and therefore democratic. Understanding all this, it looks as though Ruto’s team has set out to change this political character of the Luhya to ensure two things. First, to scare off any potential competitor from the Luhya nation and, second, to prevent them from dishing out votes on a saucer to any other candidates. Whichever way we look at it, Ruto is doing very well in this scheme. And if he succeeds to convince 90 per cent of the Luhya to endorse him, then the 2022 presidential election would have been won long before the votes are cast and counted.
Constitutional lawyer