Nairobians have been treated to a cocktail of strong torrents hitting their Governor from very unfamiliar quarters — the Jubilee Party. Will he survive the titanic tide? The only answer today is wait and see.
The rise of Governor Sonko deciphered the old-fashioned ethnic politics trend. He built a cross-ethnic support base in a manner reminiscent of the late J.M. Kariuki or T.J. Mboya.
This is his strong point and may sustain him in his long battle with the system. Sonko is not a thoroughbred system politician and it was evident at some point that he would break away.
The position of Nairobi governor is one of the most high-profile jobs and one of the most strategically important in national governance. This makes Sonko important to President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Big Four Agenda, as well as succession politics. Sonko is equally important to all potential candidates in 2022.
Unfortunately, Sonko also serves a government replete with people whose interests are conflicting at the apex, dominated by legacy and succession politics. These interests may not allow Sonko to work with some level of tranquility.
From the confessions of Sonko and his ally, EALA MP Simon Mbugua — about the system interfering with City Hall and their 2022 presidential candidate — it's clear the battle is not easy. History shows that battles against the system are 95 per cent lost to the system and this may not be sweet music to Sonko and his supporters.
The governor will likely serve out his term but the system is likely to frustrate him to the end and reduce his scorecard from D+ to E. Grade E isn't good for any politician because it may just finish him or her politically.
There is no politician who can make something good out of Nairobi without the goodwill of the national government. Governor Kidero survived because he was not a Jubilee candidate, he also balanced NASA and Jubilee interests and, of course, he had the positive influence of Rt Hon Raila Odinga. Sonko’s case looks a bit precarious.
The political scientist spoke to the Star