The Uhuru-Raila unity pact could significantly change politics in Kenya ahead of 2022, analysts say.
While Raila’s move immediately punctures NASA’s push for electoral justice, there are mixed feelings within Jubilee too, where analysts say Deputy President William Ruto’s 2022 presidential bid will be affected.
“This deal evens things for everyone both in Jubilee and the Opposition,” opined vocal Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu.
“Raila has not only proved that he is a statesman, but he has also placed himself very strategically to play a key role in 2022. All those with presidential ambitions will have no choice but to deal with him,” said the MP.
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During last year’s two presidential campaigns, Ruto was particularly opposed to the formation of a government of national unity or any deal with the Opposition.
As news filtered through the country of the Friday deal, many Rift Valley MPs chose to adopt a wait-and-see posture.
“Although it is generally good for the country to have peace and stability, we are watching the unfolding events and will make decisions as we go along. We still expect our colleagues in Jubilee to support Ruto in 2022,” said Uasin Gishu Governor Jackson Mandago.
The deal catapults the former Prime Minister a notch higher and only below Uhuru nationally. It is likely to send shivers among other political players. It will dim the limelight enjoyed by DP Ruto.
The plan will see Uhuru and Raila engage in joint programmes as well as work together in rallying their troops to push mutual interests through Parliament in the name of securing the country’s future.
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joint programmes
Uhuru will consult Raila regularly and their plan involves having national conferences on matters such as inclusivity, devolution, corruption, electoral reforms and security.
At the end, both leaders are seeking to be seen as the two people who brought the country together and put it on a path of prosperity, given their historic rivalry that stems from their fathers.
But the key question is how this newfound unity will shape politics in the country in the coming years, with Uhuru seeking to build a legacy in his last term and other politicians angling to take over from him.
The move also brings to the fore the question of whether Raila is preparing his exit from elective politics and building his own legacy, or is he rebranding himself in readiness for 2022.
“Raila has staged a coup in NASA and is more concerned about the Odinga heritage and 2022. Raila is a foxy player and his chances for 2022 are not bad. The only question is who is playing who between Uhuru and Raila? Bottom line is Raila will split the Kikuyu vote with Ruto, or he may even do a deal with him,” said political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi.
The absence of Deputy President Ruto and NASA co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) and Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) at Harambee House yesterday was loud enough to send tongues wagging nationwide.
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nasa dead?
The three NASA co-principals issued a joint statement thereafter, saying that they were not aware of the discussions between Uhuru and Raila, while Ruto immediately twitted a message congratulating Uhuru and Raila.
“You have risen to the moment for Kenya and against hate, negative ethnicity and division. The unity, stability and transformation of Kenya supersede all other partisan interests,” Ruto said.
He is the man many will be watching as he navigates the political minefield to inherit Uhuru’s political base and succeed him.
Yet the two-time Deputy President is already facing disquiet from parts of the huge Jubilee base and receiving lukewarm support elsewhere in the country.
His fortunes will be complicated further with Raila’s cooperation with Uhuru as the former Prime Minister can use the Jubilee successes to endear himself to the President’s base. It will not be the first time; in 2002, Raila was celebrated in the whole of Central Kenya for endorsing and leading the campaigning for Mwai Kibaki as the candidate of the Rainbow Coalition against President Moi’s preferred heir — Uhuru Kenyatta.
Things turned full circle when Raila fell out with Kibaki midway through Kibaki’s first term over unfulfilled promises. In the aftermath of the acrimonious fallout, Raila ran against Kibaki in 2007 in an election he is believed to have won, that ended with bloodshed.
A coalition government was formed thereafter, with Uhuru joining Kibaki this time round against Raila and Ruto. Come 2013, the lineup had changed again, this time with Uhuru and Ruto back together against Raila and Kalonzo Musyoka, who had been ditched by Kibaki.
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Will 2022 be the return match for Raila against Ruto?
There has been growing speculation that Raila is preparing to run for President again in 2022 and has been rebuilding his ODM party as part of this strategy. But his allies rule out another bid for Raila, hinting that he will be a kingmaker.
Supporters of his co-principals are clinging on to an agreement between them that excludes him from running for office at the next election.
Since his co-principals skipped his January 30 swearing-in as the ‘people’s president’, Raila’s core supporters have urged him to ditch NASA and rebuild his ODM party.
They have derided Mudavadi, Kalonzo and Wetang’ula as cowards for not attending the swearing-in while their supporters have claimed Raila tricked them and proceeded without their concurrence.
Two days ago, ANC Secretary General Barrack Muluka told Citizen TV in an interview that Raila’s co-principals were not taking it kindly that they were being negatively branded while it was the former Prime Minister who ditched them.
He also said that the NASA fraternity does not expect Raila to be on the ballot at the 2022 election.
“I have to tell the country the truth. The NASA Agreement states that the 2017 presidential candidate will not be the presidential candidate in 2022. Trying to demonise people as cowards and betrayers is wrong,” he said.
The country will, therefore, be watching keenly to see if Raila’s move on Friday without his co-principals was the end of NASA and if they would form a fresh front against him and Uhuru.
For many observers, NASA is already dead. Having failed to capture power, unlike Cord that preceded it, analysts say it is only a matter of days before it disintegrates from perpetual wrangles.
Prior to the 2017 presidential elections, Kalonzo had demanded that Raila follows through with a Cord 2013 MoU that said the Wiper leader would run in 2017.
Wiper has already made it clear that it expects other NASA principals to back Kalonzo in 2022 as the second in the pecking order, which has not gone down well with the other partners —Mudavadi and Wetang’ula — who have also laid claim to the NASA ticket for 2022.
With its potential fragmentation, it remains to be seen if the country will have an official opposition for the next five years, or they will all fold up into an arrangement akin to the Grand Coalition government of 2007-2013.
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