Raila Odinga and I have one thing in common: We are both Arsenal fans.
Now you might be tempted to laugh at us, particularly if you support another English Premier League team. Please don’t. It’s already painful being an Arsenal fan so don’t add to our common agony. We have enough of it already. If you are a football fan, and a keen follower of the English Premier League, then you know we Arsenali have gone too long without a major trophy.
We have been starved of the tinsel for so long that we have become the butt of every crass football joke. It’s now been 14 years since we last saw some Premier league glory and this season will probably end on a bad note, because, other than missing out on the main thing, we may just not make it to next season’s UEFA Championship.
So, Raila’s disappointment is also mine and every time a game goes badly, as it often does, I know he is also feeling my pain.
SOMETHING TO BLAME
A typical Arsenal fan has gotten to blaming something and everything for the team’s inability to get it right in the EPL. We have blamed the Frenchman coach, Arsene Wenger, for not buying the right players, for not fielding the right ones, for falling short on strategy, among other factors. We have also moved to blaming the referees and have found fault in the quality of refereeing as one of the reasons for our consistent inability to get the silverware.
I personally think Wenger has overstayed his welcome at Arsenal—22 years—and has no new ideas for the club.
Arsenal badly needs the days of Thierry Henry, Patrick Vieira and Dennis Bergkamp. The team today drops easy points because of players who seemingly lack the fire in their belly for goals.
In short, Arsenal needs a game changer that can bring back the same vigour that it had in its golden years.
GAME CHANGER FOR RAILA
In many ways, the life of Raila is like that of Wenger and his elusive chase for glory. Raila has run for President consistently since 1997, and, save for 2002, when he supported Mwai Kibaki, and has lost on all of the last attempts. For Raila, 2002-03 was a happy time. He was in the government. He was a Cabinet minister in two successive regimes and different political dispensations. Then the following year, Arsenal won the EPL. These were truly happy times. But then that was it.
Then in 2005, he was out of government and chose to go it alone in the 2007 election. Since the start of his presidential ambitions, Raila controversially won one (or more as he strongly believes) and even then, he still did not become President. In fact, his best performance in politics was when he swept into the government by supporting another. This is increasingly the direction that he must begin to consider. But he has not ruled out running in 2022. But, as things stand, the results may just be more of the same thing. This is because, like Wenger, their philosophy remains largely unchanged.
THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY
This time next year, we are likely to hear even louder calls of Wenger Must Go! This is because Arsenal will post the same results because their manager will do the same old thing. But he will also do everything except quit.
And Raila won’t quit either, despite not delivering the presidency to his fans. This tolerance to loss is most baffling and I, as an Arsenal fan, often ask why I subject myself to the pain of loss every time my team comes short.
I guess I am, like Raila, a prisoner of expectations and of possibilities. And the same goes for millions of his followers. They will stand with him through thick and thin, even if he has yet to bring the bacon home. This phenomenon is best understood as the ‘Gambler’s fallacy’. In more scientific language, it is known as the ‘fallacy of the maturity of chances’. It is the (mistaken) belief that, if something happens less frequently at a given time, it will happen more frequently in the future. This is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, in which gamblers thought that by losing more frequently, they are edging closer to a season of wins. So they really gambled even more.
That theory has been disproved as nothing more than a fallacy. Recently, Raila called for another election in August this year, apparently to do it right this time. Even if the wish could be granted, by whatever means, there are still no guarantees of success. This is because anything that can go wrong, according to Murphy’s Law, WILL go wrong. The same is true for practically anything under the sun, and elections are no exception.
IMPRISONED BY POSSIBILITIES
Every time the first whistle at the EPL is blown, we all hope for the very best for our team in the new season. We have become prisoners of hope, hoping that everything will work out for us this time round. The same goes for politics. We begin the race for the top seat from our respective political affiliations, but only one wins. There is only one team that gets to lift the cup. But as we got to know on January 30, Raila also lifted (a) cup for his (stolen) victory in August last year. This second cup is what has caused lots of drama, resulting in a major crackdown on the media and some of the individuals who facilitated the swearing-in.
In many ways, Raila has been a prisoner to the hope of becoming President. He has lived in this prison just about as long as Wenger has been at the helm of Arsenal. Both of them are prisoners of possibilities, as indeed I, too, am. But Wenger has been numerously advised to clean the deck and get new players. This will shake up the moribund forward, which is not getting the goals we need and the back, which is conceding needless goals. I believe if Raila met Wenger, that is exactly what he would tell him. If I met Raila, I would also tell him the same thing. Sign up new players.
SIGNING NEW PLAYERS
A weak team at the start of the season or game will always finish in a poor position. Winning any game must have a lot to do with fielding the right players in the right positions. Raila needs a new goalkeeper, new players in the right back, in the left back and a powerful new central midfielder. He needs two strong centre backs and a flying right-winger to score crucial goals against Jubilee.
He must begin by getting rid of the (useless) players he has. Running mate Kalonzo Musyoka has proved himself to be the weakest link in the NASA chain. Even Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula are just the same — overrated weak players that won’t bring in the goals.
Like Wenger, Raila must sign up new players urgently if he is to take a serious stab at the presidency in 2022. A good team, for instance, would bring up second-tier players to become prime players. These players should bring to the field new energy and focus. He should cut out Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula. They proved themselves to be lily-livered just as they had been predicted to be. He should not fear that they would rival him for anything. They will not. They eroded their own bases when they lost their nerve and failed to turn up for the swearing-in.
CHANGING THE MINDSET
Arsenal players have been criticised for not playing the mental side of the game. They have not been up to speed when it comes to the mental fortitude required to win against their perennial rivals. They have been more into ‘performance’ rather than focusing on the psychological side of winning a football game.
NASA strategy has been focussed on the ‘muscle’ side of Kenya’s politics (in calling for protests against the government) rather than focussing on a solid political strategy that will engage the government without too much ‘physical’ confrontation (which has largely failed anyway) and show itself to be the credible government-in-waiting. They are, like Arsenal, working on the same strategy year in, year out and hoping every time that they will get different results. Their strategy has now been understood by Jubilee and by pulling away security personnel during the swearing-in, nobody died and, to many, it was an anti-climax. Politics of open confrontation has not helped Raila and it will not deliver State House.
EXPLOITING THE NEW STATUS
Raila, as the self-styled ‘People’s President’ can achieve much, if he cleverly uses the tag. The position may help him consolidate his bases and also get to them direct without the help of his co-principals. In many ways, he rose in the minds of his bases while his co-principals diminished. He has, however, been roundly criticised by the international community and has been ridiculed, not just locally, but internationally. He must, however, not allow himself to be sidetracked.
US President Theodore Roosevelt once said, “Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits, who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they lie in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat.”
I think he was speaking to Raila Odinga, and to Arsenal fans.