The swearing-in ceremony of opposition candidate Raila Odinga, once a remote possibility, is slowly yet surely about to become a reality. NASA zones nationwide have adopted a no retreat no surrender policy.
Raila has crossed the Rubicon or point of no return. President Uhuru Kenyatta meanwhile, like Emperor Nero, sits at the House on the Hill completely oblivious to the explosive situation that is developing.
NASA is planning a one million person(s) march to the swearing-in ceremony slated for January 30. Jubilee, in characteristic fashion, is planning the biggest security operation ever seen in Kenya to counter the NASA juggernaut.
Precious lives of Kenyans are at grave risk yet our leaders don’t give a hoot. Indeed, the President is on record congratulating the National Police Service for a job well done after massacring hundreds of Kenyans between August and November 2017.
This is how heartless and uncompassionate our leaders have become. We now have a “Catch 22” situation, with the President held hostage by Jubilee hardliners and Raila equally held by NASA fanatics. Attempts by religious, business leaders and the diplomatic service to bring both leaders to the negotiating table have come to naught.
Kenya is now hurtling perilously towards the precipice and Nero is busy playing a guitar and singing. Ultimately the responsibility for whatever happens in the next fortnight will rest at the Presidents’ doorstep.
One thing that many Kenyans cannot comprehend or fathom is Jubilee’s irrational paranoia of the opposition leader being sworn in as the People’s President. Granted, it is not within the law or the Constitution, but Jubilee’s response need not be akin to killing a fly with a hammer. There are many ways of skinning a cat and Jubilee could ignore the ceremony and watch their next move (if any).
A march on State House is not on the cards and any attempts on the same would be reckless and foolhardy. Many members of NASA are not for the swearing-in ceremony for various reasons.
The first is that they do not want the blood of Kenyans on their hands over a ceremony that is not about to get anywhere and secondly Raila missed the bus by not being sworn in after the annulled August 8 election. At that time it would have been credible as Uhuru had not won the election, which would have given the ceremony a force of law however narrow.
Finally, this ceremony is bound to give the opposition leader political mileage beyond his mandate as he was due to retire if he failed to clinch the presidency. Human beings are ambitious creatures and Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula have been sitting in the wings, awaiting their turn at the presidency. Time as they say waits for no man and all three are middle-aged. Any attempts to relegate them to the back-burner will be resisted vigorously.
Jubilee in the meantime is working overtime in attempts to entice and snare NASA leaders using a combined carrot and stick approach and propaganda. They have shamelessly approached all three coalition leaders and it would be no surprise if one or more caved in.
In the words of Thomas More in the classic book A Man for All Seasons, “Every man has his price!” Jubilee, with state coffers at their beck and call, may just offer the right incentives and it would be “curtains down for the opposition.” One often wonders why they waited so long. It’s a terrible weakness in the Jubilee camp that they are often aroused from their slumber by crisis.
Isolating the opposition leader would be a dream come true for Jubilee. One person who cannot and must not jump ship is ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi. The stakes are too high and he must be on the ballot. One legislator has even threatened to shoot him were he to turn back like Lot’s wife!