Skip to main content
December 15, 2018

Uhuru 3% ahead of Raila, Ipsos finds in last poll before Tuesday vote

A file photo of President Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA presidential flag bearer Raila Odinga. /JUSTUS OCHIENG
A file photo of President Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA presidential flag bearer Raila Odinga. /JUSTUS OCHIENG

A survey by Ipsos has given President Uhuru Kenyatta a marginal lead against Raila Odinga, about a week to the August 8 general election.

Ipsos reported this on Tuesday following its last presidential opinion poll.

The researcher said Uhuru would emerge victorious, if elections were held today, with 47 per cent of the vote against Raila's 44 per cent.

Five per cent respondents were still undecided while some three per cent refused to reveal who they will vote for. One per cent said they do not intend to vote.

Western and Coast regions led in the number of undecided voters at 14 per cent and nine per cent respectively. 

According to the poll, NASA enjoys 45 per cent countrywide support against Jubilee’s 41 per cent.

Raila leads in Nyanza, Western, Lower Eastern, Nairobi, Coast, North Eastern and areas inhabited by pastoralists in the Rift Valley. 

Uhuru enjoys majority support in Central, Upper Eastern, and Central Rift.

The survey sampled 4,308 respondents between July 3 and 12.

An earlier survey by Infotrak suggested Raila as likely winner at the polls with 49 per cent lead against Uhuru's 48 per cent.

Another by The Star gave Uhuru a one per cent lead.

Also see: [VIDEO] Raila ahead of Uhuru six days to election - Infotrak

Also read: Tight race for State House as Uhuru one per cent ahead of Raila - The Star poll

Late in July, Ipsos and Infotrak gave conflicting figures on Uhuru and Raila’s approval ratings in two separate polls conducted over almost the same period and in 47 and 31 counties, respectively.

The variance came barely 14 days to the election.

Ipsos put the President ahead with 47 per cent against Raila’s 43 per cent. This poll had a 2.09 per cent margin of error.

Only hours after Ipsos released its findings, Infotrak gave Raila a razor-thin margin of 47 per cent against Uhuru’s 46 per cent, with six per cent of voters still undecided.

More on this: Pollsters differ on Uhuru, Raila support

Poll of the day