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February 16, 2019

Numbers Show JP Will Win Elections

President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto are escorted by Jubilee leaders and supporters when they presented nomination papers to IEBC. /Courtesy
President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto are escorted by Jubilee leaders and supporters when they presented nomination papers to IEBC. /Courtesy

As the Jubilee nominee for Nyeri Town constituency, I am committed to ensuring President Uhuru Kenyatta gets his second term in office.

In that respect, I have taken personal responsibility of ensuring that all the approximate 82,000 voters registered in Nyeri Town get out on August 8 and vote for President Uhuru. (Of course I expect that by default the majority of these voters will vote for me as their MP).

I am, therefore, quite happy to invest time and resources into the recently launched ‘Mbele Iko Sawa’ Jubilee Caravan that is spearheaded by my good friend Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria.

This caravan is made up of primarily fresh faces that won the Jubilee Party nominations across the country, as well as young MPs who were nominated to defend their seats on the Jubilee Party ticket.

It also includes other young leaders such as nominated MP Isaac Mwaura, Taita Taveta Woman rep Joyce Lay and Budalang’i’s Ababu Namwamba, who were in the 11th Parliament under ODM but have now shifted their support to Jubilee.

‘Mbele Iko Sawa’ is a simple campaign. We want to tell Kenyans what to expect in August so that no one gets surprised. We all know politics is about numbers.

In 2013, Jubilee’s numbers came mainly from Central, Upper Eastern and the Rift Valley. Cord on the other hand got its votes from Nyanza, Coast, Western and Lower Eastern. Nairobi and Northeastern were contested territories.

Today Jubilee has not only consolidated its Central, Upper Eastern and Rift Valley strongholds (do not believe the hype from Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto; he will actually be lucky if he gets his seat back), the ruling party has also eaten substantially into NASA’s support base in Lower Eastern to the point one can argue that Lower Eastern is a 50-50 split between Jubilee and NASA.

Jubilee has also eaten into the Coast vote bloc such that political pundits project JP could get as much as 40 per cent of the votes cast (which explains why Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho is always in a bad mood of late).

Northeastern is also now primarily a Jubilee territory. In Nyanza, Jubilee has eaten into the Kisii vote and I expect that we will get more votes in Western than in 2013 because — as Ababu says — there is a reason he was called ‘Generali’ in ODM.

Nairobi is still strongly contested between the two political outfits, although the Jubilee and ODM nominations show the Sonko-Sakaja-Shebesh, or Team ‘3S’ as I hear they are referred to, will most probably get out a larger number of voters for Jubilee, than the Kidero-Pasaris-Sifuna team will do for ODM-NASA

So let us think about this for a minute. Jubilee has its 2013 strongholds intact. (And these are the strongholds that enabled it to get over 50% of the 2013 vote, and into office). They are the incumbents. They have also deliberately and strategically eaten into the 2013 Cord strongholds over the past four years, and consolidated large sections of the contested vote behind them.

Meanwhile NASA is struggling to sustain its strongholds. Nyanza is in rebellion as independents fight against Raila’s anti-independents push. In Ukambani, Kalonzo Musyoka has had to watch over half of his party’s MPs openly defecting to Jubilee, while one of the three governors of what Kalonzo would like to call his stronghold has set up a Jubilee-leaning party, and the other two are viciously fighting his allies.

Wetangula’s ambitions have not moved beyond 2013.

Now, if politics is about numbers and Jubilee is adding its numbers while ODM/Cord/NASA is subtracting from theirs, can we call this election for Jubilee? During a recent Murang’a tour by the ‘Mbele Iko Sawa’ caravan Ababu said as far as he is concerned, Jubilee has bagged this election.

All that is required is for all those who support Jubilee to turn out and vote. Jubilee’s win will be indisputable.

So, do not get surprised in August. ‘Mbele Iko Sawa’ … na Jubilee.

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