Clan dynamics to separate same old faces in Garissa governor race

As the clock ticks towards the August 9 polls, in Garissa clan endorsements will once again largely determine who wins what seat.

Garissa county has a population of 70,000 according to the 2019 census figures and with close to 170,000 voters according to IEBC 2017.

Samawadhal, Abduwak and Aulihan of the Ogaden are the biggest inhabitants in the county.

Just like in 2013 and 2017 where the race narrowed down to incumbent Ali Korane and Nathif Jama, the scenario seems to be playing out again once again.

Korane hails from the Awdhaq while Jama comes from the Aulihan clan.

Clan elders play a critical role in choosing leaders during the electioneering period in Northeastern.

The elders are respected decision makers in all community matters, politics included.

While the same negotiated democracy will come into play when forming alliances, its proponents support it saying it has helped in maintaining stability among communities.

But its critics argue that negotiated democracy is a sanitised system of impunity, with no foundation, democratic ethos or ideological framework.

Former Northeastern regional commissioner Mohamed Saleh says negotiated democracy served its intended purpose of uniting communities and making them all feel equal when it comes to sharing leadership slots  until some elders messed it up.

“Negotiated democracy was a very noble and fair concept before the elders got deeply entangled in corruption and vested interests. That is when the rain started beating us,” Saleh a respected elder among the Somali community said.

Korane and Jama have since been endorsed by their respective clans as the sole candidates to fly the communities’  flag.

The exercise was however disputed by some aspirants who were left out.

Dekhow Mohamed from the Awdhaq and Mohamed Shidiye from the Aulihan who were not picked have vowed to go all the way to the ballot.

According to political pundits, the two who seem determined to go all the way to the ballot despite being dropped by clan elders might eat into the vote basket of the two front runners.

In terms of clan matrix, the Samawadhal who inhabit Ijara constituency in the southern part of Garissa have always acted as the swing votes.

Recently during his endorsement for a second term by his Sawadhal community, Senator Abdul Haji said various clans are in talks with the community for possible partnerships.

He said the elders will look into possible political coalitions.

In the 2017 elections, the Samawadhal formed a coalition with Abduwak called the Tolomoge Alliance.

In the alliance, Samawadhal clan supported Ali Korane’s gubernatorial bid in exchange of the senatorial and deputy governor seats. The Awdhaq had also women representatives, they won all the seats on a Jubilee tickets.

Observers are also keenly watching the unfolding to see which candidates the aspirants choose to deputise them.

Former deputy governor Abdullahi Hussein who has aligned himself to Governor Korane comes from the larger Hassan Abdikarim sub clan.

The current, Abdi Dagane who at one time fell out with Korane before reconciling comes from Rer Mohamed.

Another key determinant would be the swing votes, majorly found in Aden Duale's Garissa Township constituency.

Political pundits say the corner tribes and non-residents cannot be written off since in the past election they have played a crucial role in who wins.

Mohamed Abdi,  a political commentator, says urban voters do not necessarily vote for a candidate based on his or her clan but for their interests.

“Worth noting is the fact that the Duale factor will also come into play since he played a big part in supporting Korane in the 2017 election.

"You cannot just write off his influence when it comes to Garissa politics and especially that of the constituency he represents which is vote rich. He is a populist who remains a darling of the masses,” Abdi said.

Duale, a close ally of William Ruto, has already announced that he will be defending his seat.

He also made his choice clear that he will be supporting Dekhow Maalim during a recent political rally in Garissa that was attended by DP Ruto.

Korane and Jama have already hit the road running as they try to consolidate their voting blocks as well as get new support bases.

Recently, Korane said that he was confident of retaining his seat in the August election.

Korane said his flagship projects give him a good chance compared to his competitors.

The governor said Northeastern clan dynamics play a big part in the election but one’s development track record is a big contributor to their performance in the election.

He said despite the challenges he has encountered since 2017, he has managed to initiate several development projects.

On the hand, Jama has been banking on the projects he initiated at the advent of devolution saying that the basic foundation he lay is what has helped the county this far.

“During my tenure we managed to achieve the developmental milestones that shaped Garissa.

"I still have an unfinished business in as far as developing our county is concerned. I urge residents to give me one more chance,” Jama said during the endorsement by his clan early last year.

(Edited by Bilha Makokha)