Delayed rains in Northern Kenya and the ongoing control operation means the desert locust infestation could be contained any time.
The Food and Agriculture Organization says the delayed rains are a blessing to the fight against the locusts because swarms need the rains to mature and lay eggs.
“If the predicted rains are poor in the coming weeks, this trend is expected to continue, which could lead to the collapse of the 2019-2021 upsurge,” FAO said in its latest advisory.
This mirrors assertion by the Ministry of Agriculture that the infestation could be contained this month.
FAO explained that during this year's dry season, locust swarms remained immature for several month, longer than normal, a strategy they deploy to await rainfall to finish their maturation and lay eggs.
"While this may still occur in April, below-normal rainfall expected this spring would limit breeding to parts of northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia at a much lower scale than last year. If this is followed by poor rainfall this summer in northeast Ethiopia, then the desert locust situation should return to normal," the briefing said.
Last week, government Spokesperson Cyrus Oguna said the swarms have reduced from 25 counties to about three.
"These have split into small swarmlets which are currently concentrated around Gilgil and Elburgon in Nakuru county. Efforts continue to be applied to ensure that the last of the swarmlets is contained," Oguna said.
The first swarms crossed over into Kenya in November 2020 and invaded nearby counties. A total of 25 counties had been infested by the pests in different magnitudes.
Oguna said during phase two of the locust invasion, a few swarms crossed into Kenya from neighbouring Ethiopia and Somalia, and over a period of time, multiplied to 203.
He said there has been remarkable progress made with the containment efforts.
“Control and containment efforts by the government in collaboration with the county governments and other development partners such as FAO, DLCEO, World Bank, among others, have managed to reduce the swarms to only three.”
Oguna said farmers in areas previously infested can plant their crops as had been advised by the government.
The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group earlier this year laid bare the damage already caused by the locusts.
Its assessment found that about one-third of cropping households and a half of livestock rearing households experienced locust-related pasture and crop losses.
“For impacted households, desert locust losses were often quite large. More specifically, nearly seven out of every 10 impacted cropping and livestock-rearing respondents experienced high or very high losses of their crops and rangeland,” the assessment showed.
Edited by P.O
