Kenyans earnings declined drastically in Q1 2021- GeoPoll

Covid-19 is pushing Sub-Saharan Africa’s leading economies back into poverty, with Kenya most affected,  a new GeoPoll survey shows.

The survey in South Africa, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique and Kenya found rising unemployment, further falls in incomes, drastic cuts in spending on essential and non-essential items, and mounting concern over meeting bills in the first three months of 2021.

“The picture that emerges is of a further sharp deterioration in the financial position of many individual Africans in the first quarter of 2021, with the most impact felt in Kenya,” said Scott Lansell, GeoPoll’s vice president– International Development.

The poll that involved 2,400 respondents, with  79 percent in Kenya reporting that their incomes have dropped since January. 

Although economic sentiment was improving in East Africa's largest economy with total GDP of close to Sh12 trillion, the locking down of five key counties in March to curb the spread of Covid-19  suffocated recovery.

''The lockdown proved quickly effective in reducing infections and was lifted on May 1, but the financial impact looks set to be far-reaching, with 79 per cent of Kenyan respondents reporting falling incomes in the three months to end-March 2021,'' says the report. 

The  hardest hit were youth, with 66 percent of the 18-25 year-olds surveyed in Kenya reporting they had suffered sharp income drops during the period under review. 

This widespread financial impact saw 54 percent of the 400 Kenyans polled reporting that they were "extremely concerned" about meeting their expenses over the next three months.

“When we see the trend in Kenya of deteriorating incomes in the three months leading up to each of our four polls during the pandemic, it becomes clear that Kenyans are experiencing progressive financial pressure, which is getting worse as the pandemic is prolonged,” said John Paul Murunga, GeoPoll regional director – East Africa.

The drop in revenue has played out in many other financial changes too, with three-quarters reporting they are using mobile money less often, and 41 percent saying they are making mobile deposits and withdrawals a lot less often.

The poll also found further employment shifts as the proportion of respondents in full-time and part-time employment fell again. Overall, 35 per cent reported they were now unemployed.

Generally, the poll, which was conducted from March 24 to April 12, found two-thirds of respondents, at 66 per cent, reporting that their income had fallen since January 2021, with 42 per cent saying it had fallen by a lot.

This follows from large percentages of reported falls in the three months to end-July 2020 and November 2020.

As a result of the new income cuts,  53 per cent of all respondents said they were now extremely concerned about paying their expenses in the next three months.

According to the survey, the biggest squeeze on their spending was due to reduced earnings, but, in Nigeria, over 90 per cent of respondents said it was due to rising prices, as they face escalating inflation too.

The third wave of the pandemic has also pushed back hopes on when life might return to normal, with 24 per cent of respondents now believing they will only return to pre-Covid routines during 2022 and 2023.

In South Africa, which has suffered the most confirmed corona cases in Africa, a third, at 33 per cent, believe they won’t see things creeping back to normality until next year at the earliest.

The majority of respondents across all the countries said they felt inadequately informed about vaccinations and there was a sharp drop, compared with the previous survey where most were keen to get vaccinated as soon as they can.

In November, 62 per cent of respondents were keen to get the vaccine. But by April 2021 that had fallen to 43 per cent.

“Across all, we see deteriorating confidence in the efficacy of vaccines and rising complaints at insufficient information. If Africa cannot move to herd immunity, the ongoing toll of the pandemic will prove insupportable,'' Lansell said

In Kenya, many have retreated from their earlier enthusiasm to get vaccinated, reporting the lowest satisfaction of all the nations polled in the information they were getting on vaccination, at just 42 per cent.

Although  68 per cent of the Kenyans polled by GeoPoll in November 2020 said they would get the Covid-19 vaccine as soon as they could, only 53 per cent reported the same intention during the period under review.