IN 2013, turnout was not really an issue, because most of the presidential contestants were credible. And they got very many votes. For example, look at the votes Peter Kenneth, Musalia Mudavadi, Martha Karua and Abduba Dida got.
Then there was a new animal called spoilt votes: These votes went beyond a million.
So, in 2013, a million votes escaped the two serious contenders. In 2017, the six other candidates are likely not to get more than 50,000 combined.
And the spoilt votes will not be as many as they were last time.
Whoever wins this year’s election is the person who will rally his strongholds to massively turnout to vote. In 2013, there was a perception rigging was an option. In 2017, all loopholes for rigging are not there. So the only determinant is the voter turnout. Voter registration in 2013 was skewed: Jubilee did very good voter registration. This time, NASA equally did very good voter registration. They are almost at par.
That is why the battle lines concern who succeeds in persuading his people to wake up and vote. A perception has always been that, in Jubilee strongholds, people just wake up naturally. But in 2002 and in 2007, the voter turnout in Central when Mwai Kibaki was in the race was between 67-70 per cent.
The massive voter turnout of 2013 was based on the ICC question. That is why 90 per cent of voters came out to vote. So, Jubilee must really work hard to maintain that 90 per cent vote.
Equally, voter turnout in NASA strongholds has never been porentially higher. Why? They have always thought their candidate probably has no chances of winning.
But now it seems that there is a serious chance of him succeeding, there is more passion within the NASA brigade to wake up and vote than there is in the Jubilee strongholds. In 2013, Kibaki was leaving and everybody had money. People in Central and in the Rift Valley had a reason to wake up to fight and defend their money in the pocket. In 2017, we are going to an election when the economy of the Kikuyu nation, the economy of the Kalenjin nation is doing very poorly.
So how will Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto convince people in their old strongholds to wake up and vote? To defend what?
Omari is a an advocate of the High Court