An analysis of the 19.6 million eligible voters has put President Uhuru Kenyatta ahead of NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga by a commanding 1.2 million votes.
In what could pose a big challenge in the Opposition leader’s state House quest, Uhuru would defeat him with 52.2 per cent against Raila’s 47.7 per cent, avoiding a run off.
On the assumption that the voting patterns of 2013 remain the same at the August 8 polls, Uhuru would garner 8,568,551 million votes against his forefront challenger Raila who would get 7,334,697 votes.
If Raila is to be allocated all the 483,981 votes NASA co-principal Musalia Mudavadi got in 2013, the presidential candidate would narrow the 1.2 million votes difference with Uhuru to 749,873 votes.
This is only if the voter turn-out in all the 47 counties and the voting patterns of 2013 replicate themselves in the August 8 polls.
In the last general election, President Uhuru Kenyatta beat Raila-then running under the Cord coalition by 832,887 votes but narrowly managed to avoid a run-off by just 8,000 votes.
Uhuru's victory was attributed to huge voter turn-out in the Jubilee strongholds of Central and Rift Valley.
The Opposition coalition was then hurt by poor turnout in its strongholds of the vote-rich western Kenya, Nyanza and Coast regions.
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A projection of the August 8 presidential contest shows either coalition must push for huge voter turn-out in their loyal bedrocks to win the election.
Raila has already launched the 'adopt a polling station' strategy to push his supporters to come out and cast their votes and protect them from rigging schemes and turn tables against Jubilee.
However, a lot has changed since the last election where, for instance, three 2013 presidential candidates who got a combined 129,247 have dropped their bid and support Uhuru.
These are Peter Kenneth, Paul Muite and Martha Karua.
There have also been defections across the country majorly at the Coast and in Western Kenya where elected
Opposition leaders have moved to Uhuru's Jubilee Party.
The Opposition also appears to have made inroads in Rift Valley which gave Uhuru a good chunk of votes for his election victory in 2013.
The independent electoral and boundaries commission on Tuesday announced that 19,611,423 voters are eligible to participate in the August 8 polls.
An analysis of the figures indicates 5.2 million new voters were enlisted after the 2013 polls with Nairobi, Nakuru and Kiambu leading the pack of top counties with highest number of fresh voters.
In Nairobi county where there are a total of 2.2 million registered voters, Uhuru would garner 862,864 votes against Raila’s 904,392 votes going per the percentages they scored in 2013.
Uhuru had 46.7 per cent (659,490 votes) against the opposition chief’s 49 per cent (691,150 votes).
'RAILA WILL COMFORTABLY BEAT UHURU IN KWALE'
In Mombasa, the Opposition chief would be ahead with 269,691 votes against Uhuru’s 91,958 votes.
In Kilifi, Raila would beat Uhuru with 276,546 votes against Uhuru’s 35,402 votes as per the percentages they scored in the last polls.
In the last election, Uhuru got 23.7 per cent of the votes against Raila’s 69.8 per cent in Mombasa while Kilifi he had 83.7 against 10.7 per cent.
In Kwale county, which has a total of 281,041 voters, Raila will comfortably beat Uhuru by scoring 163,376 votes against Uhuru’s 28,409. In the 2013 polls, Uhuru scored 14.04 per cent while Raila polled 80.74 per cent.
In Lamu, Uhuru will get 23,444 votes and Raila 30,465.
They polled 40 per cent and 52 per cent in the county in the last general election.
In Taita Taveta, Raila would get 60,629 votes against 56,481 in what appears to be a rematch of the 2013 contest in which the had 49 per cent votes against Uhuru's 45 per cent.
In Tana River, Uhuru gets 33,267 votes against Raila’s 58,857, given the 34.7 per cent and 61.4 per cent they scored in 2013.
In Wajir county, Raila would get 68, 665 votes against 53,766 votes, a projection of the 49.6 per cent and 39 per cent they polled respectively.
In Mandera, the President gets 137, 108 votes against Raila’s 6,344 votes. They scored 93 per cent and 4.3 per cent votes respectively in the last poll.
In Marsabit, Uhuru would score 57,497 votes against Raila’s 59, 935 if residents vote in the same manner they did in 2013. That year, Uhuru and Raila got 47.2 per cent and 48.8 per cent support respectively.
Isiolo will see Uhuru score 36,317 votes against Raila’s 19,407 given the 55.4 per cent and 29.6 per cent they got in 2013.
In Meru, Uhuru would get 552,716 votes against Raila’s 46,672 votes, equivalent to 89.4 per cent and 7.6 per cent support respectively.
In Tharaka Nithi county, Uhuru scores 175,251 votes while the opposition chief gets 9,712 votes - 92.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively.
In Embu, Uhuru polls 242,375 votes against Raila’s 21,704 votes - 89 per cent and 7.9 per cent respectively - while in Kitui, Uhuru gets 59,532 against Raila’s 320, 772 votes, equivalent to 14.7 per cent and 79.5 per cent respectively.
In
Machakos, Raila will get 447,498 votes against Uhuru’s 49,913 votes-85.8 per cent and 9.5 per cent respectively-while in Makueni Raila will get 323, 831 votes against Uhuru’s 17,990-90.7 per cent and 5 per cent in that order.
KIAMBU STILL LOYAL TO UHURU
In Nyandarua Uhuru would get 306,378 votes against 3817 votes -97 per cent and 1.2 per cent-while in NYERI Uhuru will get 409,366 votes against 7,224 votes-96.3 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.
In Kirinyaga, Uhuru gets 305,584 (95.9 per cent) against the Opposition leader's 4,584 votes (1.4 per cent), while in Murang’a, Uhuru would get 529,380 votes (95.9) against Raila’s 13,411 votes (2.4) per cent.
Uhuru would again beat Raila in his vote rich Kiambu backyard scoring 967, 173 leaving the NASA candidate with only 84, 788.
In Kisumu Raila 468,983 votes (96.6) per cent against Uhuru’s 64,543 votes (1.3 per cent) while in Siaya, Raila would get 414,869 votes (98.4 per cent) against Uhuru’s 1306 votes (0.3 per cent).
In Homa Bay, Raila would get 443, 467 votes (98.9 per cent) votes against Uhuru’s 10,758 votes (0.2 per cent), while in Kisii, Raila would get 311, 884 votes (67.9 per cent) against Uhuru’s 125, 892 vote (27.2 per cent).
In the neighbouring Nyamira county, Raila would get 155, 204 votes (66.2 per cent against 69,029 votes (29.4 per cent).
In Kakamega, Raila would get 398,832 (63.8 per cent) against Uhuru’s 16430 votes (2.6 per cent) while in Vihiga, Raila would score 105,000 votes (46.4 per cent) against Uhuru’s 3,436 votes (1.5 per cent).
In Bungoma, Raila would get 254, 361 votes (52.8 per cent) against Uhuru’s 58,980 votes (12.2 per cent) while in Busia, Raila would get 264,499 votes (85.6 per cent) against Uhuru’s 11,51 votes (3.7 per cent).
In Bomet, Uhuru would get 310,201 votes (92.6 per cent) against Raila’s 22,528 votes, (4.6 per cent) while in Baringo he would get 185, 840 votes (87.9 per cent) against 1968 votes (9.4 per cent).
In Nandi, Uhuru would get with 253,858 votes (81.5 per cent against Raila’s 27,092 votes (8.7 per cent) while in Elgeyo Marakwet, Uhuru polls 153,028 votes(92 per cent) against 8061 votes(4.8 per cent).
In Kericho Uhuru would get 310,2011 votes 90.7 per cent) against Raila’s 22,528 votes (6.5 per cent) while in Kajiado Uhuru would get 187,311 votes (52.3 per cent) against 44.4 per cent.
In Narok, Uhuru would get 142,644 votes (46.3 per cent) against Raila’s 154,639 votes (50.28 per cent) while in Nakuru Uhuru would get 677,733 votes (80.1 per cent) against Raila’s 145,113 votes (17.1 per cent).
In Laikipia, the Jubilee candidate would get 189,649 votes (85.4 per cent) while Raila would get 27,862 votes (12.5 per cent). In
Baringo, Uhuru would get 185,840 votes (87.9 per cent) against Raila’s 1988 votes (9.4 per cent).
In Uasin Gishu, Uhuru would get 287,421 votes (92 per cent ) against Raila’s 81628 votes (4.8 per cent) while in Trans Nzoia Uhuru would get 103,709 votes (37.2 per cent) and Raila 128,188 votes (46 per cent).
In Samburu, Uhuru would get 29 140 votes (37.2 per cent) while Raila will poll 41,977 votes (46 per cent) while in West Pokot Raila would get 118, 947 votes (57.6 per cent) and Uhuru will get 37226 votes (40.9).
In Turkana Uhuru would poll Uhuru would get 106, 644 (73.3 per cent) while Raila would get 33,389 votes (22.9 per cent)