Opinion is divided in Western over the role Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi will play for NASA in the August 8 polls.
Some leaders and experts believe the former Deputy Prime Minister will play the kingmaker. Others say he is unable to mobilise much-needed Western support for the opposition.
Analysts say the delay by NASA in naming its flagbearer has greatly disadvantaged the alliance in favour of Jubilee, whose line-up is known.
The cliffhanger announcement of NASA line-up will take place on Thursday. There are fears a good number of Luyha voters may vote for Jubilee if neither Mudavadi nor Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula make on the ticket for President or Deputy President.
Yesterday, Butere MP Andrew Toboso said Mudavadi is a kingmaker taking up the space previously occupied by Wetang’ula in the precursor union Cord.
“NASA has been expanding since its formation. Given that Cord existed before NASA, it will be difficult for Mudavadi to break up the initial tripartite arrangement and emerge as the flagbearer. In this regard, he is already the kingmaker,” he told the Star on the phone.
Toboso said Wetang’ula is the biggest casualty in the new arrangement.
Political analyst Martin Oloo concurred that Mudavadi is the undisputed kingmaker in NASA because the outfit is his brainchild.
“The negotiations to pick NASA flagbearer have been secretive. Mudavadi’s endorsement of whoever will be picked, if it’s not him, will be very critical. This is how he will make the next king,” he said on Saturday.
“For the people of Western, there is need to understand that what matters is for the government of the day to offer services required and not whether the President or Deputy President is someone from the region.”
Political scientist Frank Matanga of Masinde Muliro University said Mudavadi’s role will be known after NASA names its presidential candidate.
ODM’s Raila Odinga, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are eyeing the ticket.
The fifth principal, Bomet Governor and CCM leader Isaac Rutto, says he’s not interested in being the opposition standard bearer.
Lugari MP Ayub Savula on Saturday said in Kakamega the Luhya community will accept and back whoever will be picked by NASA to fly its flag.
He added, however, that NASA must deal with expectations of Western residents if Mudavadi is not the candidate.
Mumias East MP Ben Washiali predicts Mudavadi will be peripheral.
“He only managed less than half a million votes in 2013 — some voters have left him. Anyone looking for him should be looking for these votes instead. The number is fewer after we left him,” The JP hopeful said on Saturday.
Washiali said Mudavadi’s role will depend on what the NASA team will agree on, adding that it is the other principals who wanted him on board.
Lurambi MP Raphael Otaalo said Mudavadi will only be important to the Luhyas if he is the presidential candidate.
“This way, he will be able to mobilise the Western vote bloc for the opposition,” he said.
Savula disagrees. He said the community is wholly in NASA and will support whoever is presented to it.
Meantime, the community expects one of its sons to feature in the NASA leadership summit, he said. Failing that, it will have to be convinced its place will be safe in the NASA administration.
“There’s a feeling that it’ll be unfair for both the Luhya principals — Mudavadi and Wetang’ula — to miss the flagbearer or running mate positions,” Savula said.
He added that the four Luhya representatives to the NASA National Coordinating Committee must will responsibility if the two do not get any of the seats.
Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, MPs Eseli Simiyu, Chris Wamalwa and Sakwa Bunyasi represented Ford Kenya and ANC — largely viewed as Luhya parties — on the 12-member NASA coordinating team.