The Jubilee Party could benefit from the Busia governor nomination fiasco if Funyula MP Paul Otuoma makes good his threat to go to the August polls as an independent candidate, political analyst Martin Oloo has said.
Otuoma has rejected calls by ODM National Election Board to repeat the primaries in Teso South and Teso North on April 25. He said the plan is meant to trap him into the party, because the date picked is a day to the deadline for parties' nominations.
Speaking yesterday, Oloo said Jubilee will be the biggest beneficiary should Otuoma and Governor Sospeter Ojaamong go to the ballot.
“Presence of Jubilee is prominent in the county given that Teso North and South constituencies are held by Jubilee MPs and Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba’s decision to back President Uhuru Kenyatta through his Labour Party of Kenya,” he said.
Any split of the opposition support base will create way for Jubilee, he said.
Oloo said the Tesos were the minority in the county and cannot on their own guarantee ODM the seat.
He said Otuoma demonstrated his loyalty to ODM by sticking with the party, and any perceived “mistreatment” will lead to a protest vote.
The Funyula MP at one point resigned his position as ODM vice chairman, but insisted he was still in ODM.
Oloo said the mishandling of ODM primaries will equally undermine NASA's performance in August.
“Otuoma is a disaster in waiting for ODM because the war in Busia is about Luhyas and Tesos. However, ODM as a party has the tendency of shooting itself in the foot because it does not learn anything new,” he said.
“If one NASA affiliate starts to mess up their numbers, it will negatively affect the coalition numbers on August 8.”
Otuoma was expected to team up with Namwamba, but developed cold feet after the Budalang'i MP hurriedly acquired LPK and declared the party will work with Jubilee.
On Thursday, leaflets indicating Otuoma had joined the Jubilee Party were circulating in Busia, but he dismissed them as propaganda by his opponents.
Oloo said ODM should give serious attention to Busia issues given the manner in which sitting MPs and MCAs were kicked out during the primaries in Kakamega and Busia counties.
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