The reason NASA has diffi culties selecting one candidate and why there will be problems when they announce him is Kenya is deeply divided. Not just Jubilee and
NASA, but also divided within those alliances.
That’s why, for example, Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto is still strong,even with DP Ruto fi ghting him day and night. That’s why Baringo Senator Gideon Moi is strong, even
with Ruto preferring he loses.
It means Kalenjin voters are not as united as you might think and why strong Central candidates are opting for small parties.They know they are strong enough to win in other
Party structures weaker than they seem, and that’s true of NASA. If they settle on Raila, as many expect, Kalonzo must explain to his people why he’ll play second fi ddle a second
time. And if Kalonzo is chosen, Raila must explain to his people why when he brings the most votes that this is the best decision.
Because it’s not just Luo Nyanza but Luo Nyanza, Kisii and Coast. Supporters will say we have the most votes in our ODM and ask why someone else fl ies the standard.
There’s much explaining to do if NASA chooses either Kalonzo or Raila. Above all, they must fear government machinery Ruto and President Uhuru are not immature politicians, they are eff ective.
They too will mobilise people in NASA’s ‘excluded’ regions Nyanza, Western or Ukambani. They’ll say your leader wasn’t serious, he’s happy to be number two and doesn’t
want the presidency.
Many people argue the focus now is on governors and the presidency is not as important as before. But that’s not the case, especially among many tribes. They very much want the presidency.
They know how much money governors get but they still want State House.
So there is fear how NASA’s decision will be used against them in their own backyards. There will be fallout, minimal or major.
At the end of the day, NASA has a tough decision and the grassroots initially will be very unhappy.
The flagbearer will then dispatched to disgruntled places to convince them they actually haven’t lost anything we are a campaign team and all will have important roles. We haven’t been left out.
Expect a lot of upheaval in weeks ahead. Combined with the primaries, it’s going to be a very difficult time but let us pray there’s no violence.
The writer is a political analyst
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