As opposition leaders jostle for the National Super Alliance ticket to take on Jubilee in 2017, the Western region is attracting much interest.
The focus is on who between ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula will step down for the other. And it is not just the opposition that is watching keenly. Jubilee too is said to be even more interested after ODM leader Raila Odinga and Mudavadi addressed joint rallies in Samburu and Meru, which were well-attended.
Attempts by State House to prevail on Mudavadi to give the tour a wide berth demonstrate just how intensely the Jubilee administration is keenly following the development in opposition strongholds. Such is the panic that when a local newspaper pieced together events preceding Raila and Mudavadi’s tours in the two counties, State House frantically called media editors to‘hide’ the story in the inner pages.
The story, we are reliably informed, had been lined up for front-page (splash) treatment, but Jubilee managed to arm-twist the editors to relegate it to reduce the sting it would have had were it to be used on page one. State House wanted the story spiked altogether.
The intrigues provide a peek into what goes on away from public view. As the Jubilee Party slides into panic mode, the thinking in the opposition is that the outcome of the 2017 presidential election will be determined by Mudavadi and Wetang’ula.
Although the two have not publicly demonstrated any serious disagreements, their party supporters have been quite active in trying to cut each other to size. It is easy to guess who between the two will be picked to lead the opposition against President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.
Twice, Raila has skipped Wetang’ula’s Ford-K party functions, which were convened to endorse the Bungoma Senator’s presidential candidature —
in Masinde Muliro Gardens in Kakamega last year, and recently at the Bomas of Kenya in Nairobi.
There is talk of the opposition having settled on Mudavadi, with either Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka or Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto as his running mate.
Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, who had until recently been linked with the NASA, has since appeared to backtrack after Mama Ngina Kenyatta reportedly implored former President Daniel Moi’s family to “give” her son a second term. The reports have been corroborated by multiple Kanu sources, some very close to Senator Moi.
That is why it would be in the interest of the Jubilee Party to stoke the embers of rivalry between Mudavadi and Wetang’ula to prevent NASA from transforming into a juggernaut that will send them home.
Word has it that Jubilee is contemplating prising Wetang’ula from Cord and sponsoring him to split the Western vote.
The President’s tour of Western this week to reopen Pan Paper Mills is seen as part of this scheme. In his Jamhuri Day speech, the President promised to revive the Eldoret-based Rift Valley Textile (Rivatex), which previously depended on cotton grown in the now-defunct Western and Nyanza provinces.
The period between now and next March, when the opposition is expected to unveil its candidate, is expected to be a testy one for Mudavadi and Wetang’ula. Their leadership credentials will be tested by the loose cannons in their party ranks.
One of them, Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa, a Wetang’ula ally, spares no effort to dig into Mudavadi. Wamalwa, once a rare bright spot in the highly discredited 12th Parliament, has graduated into an unapologetic village yodeller, exemplifying the hard feelings that exist between ANC and Ford Kenya.
ANC secretary general Geoffrey Osotsi reflects the thinking in ANC quarters: Very dismissive of Ford Kenya as inconsequential in Western. That is the scenario Jubilee relishes.