ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi may prove to be disruptive to Cord, a political analyst has said. The reunion of Mudavadi and ODM's Raila Odinga could be a double-edged sword for them both, analysts say.
Mudavadi was Raila's running mate in the bitterly contested December 27, 2007, general election, which the latter insisted was rigged by President Kibaki’s PNU.
The dispute led to the 2007-08 post-election violence, in which 1,300 Kenyans lost their lives and 600,000 were displaced. Mudavadi and Raila parted ways in 2012 over party matters.
But now the two are back together under the National Super Alliance, which they have pledged to make a reality in February.
Former Medical Services minister Amukowa Anangwe reads in this an attempt by Raila to consolidate his Luhya support. He could as well be raising the stakes in his bid for the Cord ticket at the expense of co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya), who are seeking the ticket, he said.
“The move could break up Cord. If Raila is seeking to overshadow Kalonzo and Wetang'ula, [this could] occasion the exit of the two and the need for Raila to reconstitute his coalition partners to the detriment of his support among the Kamba and Bukusu,” Anangwe said.
“In short, Mudavadi may eventually prove to be a disruptive element for Cord, and Raila will need to weigh carefully the political consequences of taking him on board.”
The two appeared together in Laikipia on Tuesday and pledged to unite to remove Jubilee from power. They expressed regret for going their separate ways in 2012.
Political analyst Martin Oloo yesterday said the impact of Raila and Mudavadi teaming up will be massive on the Western region and national politics. He said it could herald a repeat of the 2002 Narc euphoria that swept President Daniel Moi's Kanu from power after a 24-year rule.
“The message by Raila and Mudavadi is that opposition unity is the only safe bet to dislodge Jubilee from power and if they can’t stick together they will be hanged separately,” he told the Star on the phone.
Western and Nyanza have an estimated five million votes, which gives them the capacity to neutralise the tyranny of numbers Jubilee boasts of in Central and Rift Valley. Nyanza has 2.2 million votes while Western has 1.6 million voters and another 1.4 million are spread across the country.
Vihiga Senator George Khaniri said leaders from Western support the union and will work to ensure its success because the Luhyas and Luos have been marginalised by all past regimes.
“What now matters is for all opposition leaders to approach negotiations for [the] opposition alliance with open minds as they are all capable of leading Kenya. Any politician from this region who will go against the spirit of a unified opposition will be digging his own political grave,” he said.
Media analyst Martin Andati said the reunion would be a game changer if Mudavadi is made the compromise opposition flag bearer. He said, however, that the move could backfire on Mudavadi as Raila is unlikely to cede ground.
“The move will put Mudavadi’s political judgment to question if he is not the opposition candidate. He should tread carefully as he could be duped again like Jubilee did in the wee hours of the 2013 elections,” Andati said.
Lugari MP Ayub Savula said the coming together of Raila and Mudavadi will complicate matters for Wetang’ula since Mudavadi has more clout.
“The only way to ascend to the presidency in Kenya is to ensure the Luhya vote in one direction because only they can cancel the Central bloc,” he said.