It hit where it hurt. Yes, the latest revelation of grand corruption in the Jubilee administration hit Uhuru Kenyatta where it hurt the most – his family. Revelations that his sister Nyokabi Muthama and cousin Kathleen Kihanya were awarded lucrative contracts in the Ministry of Health served Uhuru a massive political uppercut. Hitherto, his reclusive family has kept away from the limelight but here, they were suddenly sent to the front pages and headlines. It could not have come at a worse time. With just months to the elections, his personal qualities as a leader have never been more questioned as now. The Opposition mantra is - “Jubilee is corrupt and Uhuru is unfit to rule” is gaining traction. Despite his laudable development efforts, out there it looks like Uhuru has had a woefully dismal performance to show. He has tried to counter the onslaught by hyping the achievements of his administration but nobody seems to be listening. According to him, more homes have electricity and he has built roads at a much faster rate in his time than in the entire period since independence. However, everything he says is sounding like blah because the tolling of the corruption bell is so loud it has overshadowed everything. We have now been treated to a cheerless Uhuru who seems to have ran out of options. Uhuru Kenyatta is undergoing his darkest hour.
THE RED OCEAN STRATEGY
The media frenzy around the corruption allegations was like a pack of sharks smelling blood and encircling their hapless victim. Uhuru came under sustained media battering with sensational revelations making headline news day after day. All of them are against him. Online, the battle was driven by the Twitter hash-tag ‘systemyamajambazi’ which trended for a while. Bloggers carried their interpretations of Jubilee corruption around the world. Live media coverage brought to the fore the goings-on in the NYS scam in which shocking revelations of millions being carried around in paper bags captured the imagination of people locally and internationally. A friend of mine from Malawi where Uhuru Kenyatta has a cult-like following, said that the story felt like the death of a good friend.
I am not sure if it was strong enough to remove the halo that he enjoys over there but the coming of President Magufuli as the news broke ensured that the story got front-page news in Tanzania where the picture of Kenya as irredeemably corrupt, is generally in the public conscience. Uhuru is like a wounded animal bleeding in a shark-infested ocean – the Opposition is going for him in what can only be described as the Red Ocean strategy. The ocean is getting quite red.
UNRAVELLING JUBILEE
The renascent Opposition has taken to trashing the grand projects of the Jubilee administration painting each of them as tainted with corruption or having something hidden behind it. The latest is the Itare Dam meant to provide water to thirsty distant lands. Opposition chief Raila Odinga, an unapologetic resource nationalist, is questioning why water from one region is going to another for the benefit of other people at the expense of or to the detriment of locals. It has nothing to do with the environmental impact of the projects, it is pure resource nationalism. Here’s why. New York city gets half its water from the state of Delaware through a massive aqueduct – the world’s longest at 137 km. The aqueduct is 4.1 metres wide and carries a whopping 5 million cubic metres per day (5 billion litres). That is only half of New York’s water as more aqueducts supply the other half mostly from the neighbouring state. Compare that to the Murang’a’s 142,000 cubic metres (142 million litres) going through just 11km. While the comparison must factor in many more arguments, in America the story is not of ‘why them?’
Incidentally, both regions whence the waters of the Muranga and Itare dams come, are Jubilee strongholds. This is therefore an excellent strategy to cut Jubilee support from the base.
PERSONAL INTERESTS
The latest twist in the Itare Dam project is the challenge by Raila to Uhuru to declare his personal interest in it. Rumour has it that the Itare water is intended to go down all the way to Naivasha where there are plans to create a massive industrial park and which is why the SGR will be extending there. While it is not clear to what extent Uhuru is personally involved in both projects, the challenge by Odinga to come out clean over the matter did not escape the keenest ear. Uhuru has not responded publicly to the challenge, but what we are likely to hear in the next few days is the spin doctors taking centre-stage stoking the fires. Then the ethnic card will be thrown into the picture and it is easy to see why Uhuru is not sitting pretty.
UNRAVELLING THE KIKUYU-KALENJIN ALLIANCE
The fallout is now beginning to take shape. Even before the dust settles, a new tiff between two people close (important) to him – William Ruto and Anne Waiguru, is now further threatening to unravel the fragile Jubilee fabric. The revelations by Waiguru that the NYS scam involved Uhuru’s right-hand man William Ruto, is further adding pressure on him. Seeing that it has the potential to break apart the fragile Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance, the Opposition is fanning the flame if only to benefit from the fallout.
Besides, Ruto is facing a legal challenge by activist Boniface Mwangi which may further weaken the already fragile alliance. Mwangi is hinging his case on William Ruto’s character or lack thereof, and this of course is only serving to further the ends of the Opposition – inadvertently or otherwise. Rumour has it that the case is now a part of a wider behind-the-scenes scheme to dim Ruto’s chances in 2022. This is evidenced by the sudden interest the case has attracted by those who don’t like the person of Ruto or who have picked a grudge down the line.
FALTERING BUREAUCRATS
To save himself, Uhuru has deflected his frustrations on State officers. The fight against corruption, we were told during the State House summit, boiled down to bottlenecks at the police and crime investigators, the EACC, the Directorate of the Public Prosecutions, the Attorney General, the Judiciary and others. Earlier, he had sent packing many officials in his administration alleged to have been involved in graft. Most of these individuals were personal friends and people for whom he had to return a favour for ardently supporting him in 2013. You can imagine the pain of axing personal friends and humiliating them in public and watching them dragged to the courts. Some are awaiting prosecution or conclusion of investigations and that is a deep state of uncertainty. Already his erstwhile ally the former Cabinet minister Charity Ngilu is fighting him after she was dropped over graft allegations.
The other of Uhuru’s officers letting him down and who has fallen squarely into the hands of the Opposition is Finance CS Henry Rotich. He has been unable to effectively (assertively) explain away the usage of the Eurobond funds. The President is watching helplessly as the Auditor General Edward Ouko is blowing his whistle generously and is now untouchable. He has come under the ‘protection’ of the Opposition who are accusing Jubilee of targeting him for removal. For now Ouko’s job is secure but the president was arm-twisted by Cord to drop the entire IEBC commissioners. Simply put, he has no power to act independently – particularly with officers who should keep things under wraps.
THE ISSUES FACING JUBILEE
Jubilee administration came to power in April 2013 and in the few days that followed, Kenyans were treated to what came to be known as the Hustlerjet in which Sh. 100 million was said to have been lost. The SGR construction was laced with allegations of project overspend in which the Ethiopians were paying comparatively lower prices for a similar project than the Kenyans were. The difference, we were told, was going to some few guys. Then came the Eurobond, the NYS scam came in and some 1.6 billion was lost, the Rio scam of earlier this year coupled with the Afya House and now the water dams, one thing has led to another. The Opposition has shoved up all these to our faces, politicizing whatever can be politicized. The narration going out there is that if you have seen so much corruption in the last few days, how much more are we going to see in the final term of Uhuru. What has been lost in the din is that Kenya’s economy has grown by nearly 6% this year alone and is projected to grow further in the next period. All the blast against Uhuru is about next year’s elections and nothing less. Uhuru is unfortunate to come up against someone who is older than him and has few options left – if he has to rule this nation, 2017 is his best – perhaps only chance to do so.
IS UHURU THAT BAD?
Baffling friend and foe alike is whether the person of Uhuru is as bad as he is portrayed. Uhuru, according to people who have closely interacted with him, is an amiable fellow, quite generous and kind-hearted. What is not in doubt is that he has an excellent level of coolness under pressure and even when he has been out-rightly humiliated by the Opposition, he has kept his cool. That was true until the other day. Seeing the proceedings on the Jubilee meeting at Bomas of Kenya and his premature ranting against Odinga, one could not help but conclude that he has been floor-boarded and can’t take it any further. When he pre-empted what Raila was going to say, it became quite apparent that he is depending heavily on his eavesdroppers to get the next Opposition move. Other than the millions that was paid to his relatives, it is hard to point out what exactly he has personally benefited in the economy at the expense of Kenyans. While Uhuru is under such heavy siege by corruption, the question is, is the alternative any better?
IS RAILA THAT GOOD?
The million-dollar question is whether Raila himself is capable to giving us a better administration than Uhuru. He has been taunted by Jubilee stalwarts as the ‘Lord of poverty’ for presiding over Africa’s largest slum and not doing much about it. When he was Prime Minister, he presided over numerous scandals just as heavy as those of Jubilee and his own office was accused of everything from nepotism, tribalism, sectarianism and embezzlement of funds. Allegations that he tried to arm-twist the Kenya Revenue Authority to go easy on Mastermind tobacco was in itself an act of corruption. Going further, the scandal-ridden ‘Kazi Kwa Vijana’ project and the Maize scandal which emanated from his office were even reflected in US Ambassador Michael Ranneberger’s sentiments captured in the Wikileaks. Corruption is rife is Cord counties and corruption allegations have been levelled against his co-principles Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula. Besides, the Mollases plant in Kisumu where common folk contributed millions in 2001 and have yet to be refunded. This is despite the fact that a portion of the investment has since been sold to a South African conglomerate Energem Resources associated with billionaire Antonio Carlos Teixeira. Raila has called for the implementation of the TJRC report conveniently omitting the Ndung’u Report where he is adversely mentioned. The conclusion, scandals will emerge just as well in an Odinga Presidency as they have in Uhuru’s.
THE CALF AND THE COW
Where I come from, before a cow is milked, usually the calf is given a few minutes to suckle so as to induce the milk. However, once the calf has tasted the milk, it becomes very hard to remove it from the teat as it keeps trying to get back to it. Milking the cow then becomes a struggle between the calf and the farmer. Going by the pressure Raila Odinga has subjected Uhuru, he is increasingly appearing like that calf, having once tasted the milk and is now pushing the rope to get to it. In short, Raila Odinga has no more power or even ability to stop corruption as Uhuru has. If I will vote for Raila, it will not be because he will end corruption. It will be because it is now his turn at the teat. Nothing more.