The passage of a Bill that bars party-hopping last week in the National Assembly has left key allies of President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition chief Raila Odinga between a rock and a hard place.
The allies, who include sitting MPs, governors, MCAs and aspirants for various positions, are at a crossroads as they have been left with only three options.
Those eying various positions can either opt to be independent candidates, look for a party where they think there will be less or no competition at all for the ticket, or stick to the party of their choice and be subjected to nominations.
Early campaigning for the 2017 General Election is shaping up as among the most competitive ever.The 2016 Election Laws (Amendment) Bill and the Election Offences Bill, which members of the National Assembly unanimously passed on Thursday, require parties to carry out their nominations at least 60 days to the elections, rather than the 45 allowed currently.
According to the two laws, which were proposed by a select committee co-chaired by Meru Senator Kiraitu Murungi and Siaya Senator James Orengo, aspirants will have to choose their parties at least 90 days to the elections.
The Elections Act was amended to make it mandatory for parties to submit members’ lists to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission at least 90 days to the date of the General Election.
With the next elections set to take place on August 8, 2017, this means the lists should be submitted by the beginning of May, while independent candidates are supposed to submit their nomination forms to the IEBC at least 60 days before the elections.
This would mean that once a candidate’s name is submitted to the IEBC as a member of a party at least 90 days before the election, they would be locked in in that party and would not qualify to run as independents.
“A thorough and clear reading of clauses eight to 12 of the Bill shows that a member who is dissatisfied with the nominations or wishes to stand as an independent candidate cannot do so. He is locked in," Kisumu Town West MP Olago Aluoch told the House last week.
In Cord the options are open, because its affiliate parties have not merged, unlike Jubilee’s, which is expected to merge all its affiliates.
Cord aspirants are expected to align with the member parties of ODM, Wiper and Ford Kenya as they declare their support for the Cord presidential flagbearer.
The situation however can prove to be a challenge to Cord, especially in areas where affiliate parties pick different candidates to compete for the same position.
Cord’s headache in ensuring that coalition supporters are not divided adds onto existing political challenges for the opposition, as they seek to pick their presidential flagbearer without any fallout.
Cord’s three affiliate parties – ODM, Wiper and Ford Kenya – are all flexing their muscle in a bid to expand their political territories, putting into jeopardy plans for joint nominations.
The nominations difficulty is compounded by fierce competition between political bigwigs battling especially for gubernatorial positions – making partner parties more or less political combatants.
In Migori, Governor Okoth Obado is facing a stiff challenge from former Rongo MP Ochillo Ayacko, who is also eying the ODM nomination ticket. Though Obado was elected on the People's Democratic Party ticket, he has publicly announced he will be seeking the ODM ticket to defend his seat. However, Ayacko has dared him to make good his announcement by defecting from his party. Nyatike MP Edick Anyanga's wife Annah is also in the race, seeking the ODM ticket.
In Mombasa, Cord member parties will be tussling against each other for the governorship position. Governor Hassan Joho faces a challenge from Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar and Nyali MP Hezron Awiti for the position. Joho is on the ODM ticket but Hassan and Awiti, who were elected on the Wiper ticket at the last election, will have to square it out in the nomination.
Kakamega has Governor Wycliffe Oparanya (ODM) against area Senator Bonny Khalwale (Ford Kenya).
In Kisii county, the battle lies are drawn for securing the ODM nomination. Governor James Ongwae will face a challenge from Manson Nyamweya MP, South Mugirango, and Senator Chris Obure.
Ongwae said it is the right of every Kenyan to vie for whatever seat they wish.
“I don’t mind fighting for nomination with anybody else, they are welcome to exercise their rights and that is democracy. But they should be prepared for a tough duel,” Ongwae said.
However, it remains unclear whether Obure will stick with ODM because he has already made an announcement that he intends to form a new political party.
But quite a number of MPs who did not want to go on the record termed the anti-party hopping law undemocratic.
“I am not sure if it is applicable in any democracy around the world - it is an issue that is value-based and you cannot legislate on values [and] morality,” an MP who supported the Bill out of coercion said.
Inside Jubilee however, a chilly new dawn awaits the various aspirants who will have to square it out with the politically well connected and the moneyed.
A source at State House who sought anonymity said President Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto have promised aspirants who lose in nominations will be given positions in government.
“The President is confident that he will achieve unity in the upcoming nominations. He has assured those who will lose out during nominations that government is big enough to accommodate them,” the source told the Star yesterday.
Though Jubilee has said it will use the IEBC to conduct its nominations, both Uhuru and Ruto will be walking a tightrope in ensuring that there is no fallout during and after the primaries, especially in areas regarded as Jubilee strongholds.
In Kirinyaga county, the battle for the Jubilee nomination pits the incumbent Joseph Ndathi against former Devolution Cabinet Secretary Anne Waiguru.
Waiguru recently announced her candidature and is busy moving around the county selling her ideas after getting the TNA gold membership card.
In Nairobi, the Jubilee leaders will have to apply biblical Solomonic wisdom to ensure there are smooth nominations without fallout. Incumbent Senator Mike Sonko, Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru, nominated MP and TNA chairman Johnson Sakaja and former Starehe MP Margaret Wanjiru, all allies of the President, have declared they will be in the capital city race for Governor.
There is danger of fallout in Nakuru too, as key UhuRuto allies have their eyes fixed on dethroning incumbent Governor Kinuthia Mbugua. Other Uhuru allies who have lined up to fight it out for the JP ticket in the cosmopolitan county include National Campaign Against Drug Abuse chairman John Muthuto, National Transport and Safety Authority chairman Lee Kinyanjui and incumbent Senator Njenga Mungai.
While Mbugua is likely to retain his deputy governor as his running mate in 2017, the three aspirants are now said to be shopping for Kalenjin running mates.
Kiambu county is another hotspot for Uhuru and Ruto. Kabete MP Ferdinand Waititu has his eyes fixed firmly on the prize of dethroning Governor William Kabogo.
Both Waititu (who came second in the 2013 Nairobi Governor race) and Kabogo enjoy a good political relationship with the President.
Other counties where Uhuru and Ruto are having headaches on how to ensure the best candidates get the ticket include Kericho, Bomet, Nandi and Elgeyo/Marakwet.
Those who will battle it out for the JP ticket in
Kericho
include Governor Paul Chepkwony, former Roads minister Franklin Bett and former National Social Security Fund managing trustee Richard Langat.
In Nandi county, Governor Cleophas Lagat, former Cabinet minister Henry Kosgey and former Agriculture CS Felix Koskei
will compete for the ticket.
A tight race is shaping up in Elgeyo Marakwet,
between Governor Alex Tolgos, Keiyo South MP Jackson Kiptanui and auditor Bernard Chepkulei.
All the three are allies of DP Ruto and will seek the JP ticket.
Yesterday JP National Steering Committee co-chairman Noah Wekesa said the party was “working on a mechanism to ensure free and fair nominations".