Opposition leader Raila Odinga, a politician whose profile has assumed demi-god status courtesy of a coterie of fanatics, political opportunists and other hangers-on, has in recent months found himself in an unfamiliar position as a result of friendly fire from young Turks in his ODM party. The nightmare is not about to end as his coalition partners, like the legendary Shylock, are also demanding their pound of flesh. A proposal that he anoints ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi as Cord flagbearer has caught on like a wild bush fire.
Attempts to create red herrings to deflect attention from ODM’s burning ship have failed miserably as even staunch supporters like former Deputy Speaker Farah Maalim are having second thoughts about a Raila presidential candidature. His bag of tricks appears to have run dry and Jubilee is denying him every opportunity to get a political platform.
Despite putting on a brave face, the opposition supremo now cuts a forlorn figure. Paradoxically, it is only Jubilee that is calling for a Raila candidature – for obviously selfish reasons. Jubilee has defeated him before and believe it can do so again. Have his chickens finally come home to roost? Is the old bull about to be put out to pasture? What does the future portend for Kenya’s leading opposition politician?
Whatever happens now or in future, Raila will live to rue two things: The first is the failure to hold democratic party elections and the second is the failure to groom a successor. He, unfortunately, surrounded himself with opportunistic sycophants who worshipped and deluded him that he was infallible. The day the Men in Black walked into Kasarani Stadium, disrupted ODM elections by destroying ballot boxes and intimidated voters, will haunt him to the end of time. That was the day ODM destroyed its future as it missed an opportunity to re-engineer itself by investing in young leaders to take the party to greater heights.
The nation watched in disbelief as a party that had projected itself as a custodian of democracy and social justice destroyed its credentials in broad daylight. ODM lost its moral authority to criticise others on good governance, accountability and democracy. In a blunder reminiscent of Kanu in 2002, ODM failed to groom a successor and, like Kanu, is now shopping for a rank outsider to carry the coalition’s flag in the hope of preventing an implosion.
The choice of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi is considered by many as a political master stroke as it would lock the populous Luo and Luhya vote in one basket. This combined with a share of votes in Nairobi, Coast, Eastern, Northeastern and parts of the Rift Valley, would launch a substantial challenge to Jubilee. The game plan would be to at least force a re-run of the presidential election. This strategy is expected to catch Jubilee flat-footed as every effort henceforth had been directed at a Raila challenge. It is designed to completely alter Kenya’s political matrix, especially the so-called tyranny of numbers.
The downside is that it could upset coalition partners Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula, leading to a mass exodus as from Kanu in 2002. Whereas this is a very real possibility the chances of them launching a credible presidential campaign given the interim period of less than one year to the next election is a challenge of monumental proportions. A Bill in Parliament outlawing party hopping, if enacted, would restrain them from joining Jubilee. They could therefore be caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Mudavadi once again is a coveted political prize. In 2002, he was Uhuru Kenyatta’s running mate. In 2013, Uhuru sensationally offered to stand down in his favour but the deal was scuttled. Now ODM wants a piece of him! What is it that draws others to this man like a magnet?