In considering the challenge faced by the opposition coalition in selecting a presidential candidate, it is good to consider the history of the nation’s politics, and how other not dissimilar challenges have been met.
Take, for example, the 2002 general election, and Raila Odinga’s famous declaration “Kibaki Tosha” at the Uhuru Park political rally. Raila says in his memoirs that he knew very well that even if he gave the assembled leaders 100 years, they would never come to an agreement. So he took advantage of the ecstatic crowd present in Uhuru Park and made his famous declaration – and that was it.
Then look at 2007, when we as ODM went to Kasarani to conduct elections for our party’s presidential candidate. We had an electoral process involving delegates, and Raila emerged the winner. That greatly solidified ODM as a party formed out of the remnants of Kanu, NDP, LDP, etc. Thus we became one single party.
Then when you look at 2013, you see a different approach. We had a summit of three key leaders, each with their own party, plus many other smaller parties that also joined the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy. And out of this we had a presidential candidate.
I think Cord can only do this by recalling what we did in 2013. Because – and this is very odd in Kenyan politics – at the presidential level within Cord nothing has changed. At the lower levels there have been all kinds of changes. But at the presidential level, we have not seen the usual game of musical chairs or revolving doors, with people moving in or out. Maybe it is too soon – maybe it will happen later on. But thus far we have the same key leaders that Cord had in 2013.
So it remains to be seen whether there will be any altercations between former VP Kalonzo Musyoka, Senator Moses Wetang’ula, and former PM Raila Odinga. All kinds of different things have been said, either by the candidates themselves or by their key supporters who are considered to in some way reflect their thinking.
But if I were to give you my honest opinion; to give you my personal take on all this; I would say that I do not think there will be any substantial agreement on a single opposition presidential candidate, without some kind of a fallout. That is my honest opinion. This has happened before.
- Mwaura is Nominated MP, ODM