Suspicion, infighting and fears of bungled nominations have shaken the Jubilee Party ahead of its launch, as politicians fear JP may lose its majority in Parliament.
The competition is so intense and the predicament so serious that key Jubilee leaders want the IEBC to conduct the nominations. There are indications all party primaries could be held on a single day to stem party hopping.
Eight big counties are considered hot spots for serious JP nomination fallout. Many governors want direct tickets.
More signs of trouble emerged last week at Ufungamano House where Nairobi governor hopefuls exchanged blows, abruptly ending a meeting convened to agree on joint campaigns.
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The race for Nairobi governor is threatening to split the coalition, as Jubilee city leaders accuse Deputy President William Ruto of trying to impose Water CS Eugene Wamalwa on the electorate.
There is anxiety in the Rift Valley that Kanu and Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto's Chama Cha Mashinani will be the big beneficiaries of the fallout in the JP nominations. The party is to be launched in September.
In Mt Kenya, some former allies of retired President Mwai Kibaki are promising to re-engineer PNU to rival JP. They have rebuffed calls for dissolution and merger with JP.
“Mashinani and Kanu will pick some seats, that is obvious. But it will all depend on how Jubilee manages its nominations,” city lawyer Makanda Sevastone said.
“In the last election, the Nyeri governor [Nderitu Gachagua] was elected on a GNU ticket. In Luo Nyanza, there are many Ford Kenya and Wiper MPs. The days of imposing candidates on the electorate are gone."
Currently, Jubilee holds the influential positions of majority leaders in both houses of Parliament due to its numerical strength.
TNA also gets the lion's share of the political parties' cash because of its parliamentary majority.
But Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto is reaching beyond the South Rift in a grassroots mobilisation campaign as he prepares for the grand launch of his new political machine.
The governor, a fierce critic of the Deputy President, is to launch his CCM Party in November, even as Kanu — its closest partner — also intensifies its activities in the Rift Valley.
Jubilee Party, President Uhuru Kenyatta's 2017 political vehicle, will be comprised of about 10 parties that have agreed to wind up and merge.
In an interview with the Star, Governor Rutto said he and his supporters have embarked on a massive grassroots charm offensive, denying claims he has only pitched tent in the South Rift.
“It's just that South Rift is my home area...Because I am always in Bomet, people think I am there doing politics. No. That is where I have a job to do. But otherwise, in terms of politics, I am heavily [involved] in other areas as well,” he said.
On Thursday, Rutto toured Narok county and opened a CCM office in Murkan town.
Over the weekend, the ex-Council of Governors boss was in Isiolo and Samburu for a membership drive.
Aware of the damage of fallout over nominations, some Jubilee honchos are already pushing for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to conduct its primaries.
DP Ruto revealed on Sunday they have recommended the electoral agency conduct the JP polls.
“We have recommended Jubilee Party nominations should be conducted by the IEBC. The constitution allows the commission to assist political parties in their nominations. This would ensure free and fair primaries,” he said.
Elgeyo Marakwet Senator Kipchumba Murkomen, who is on the parliamentary joint committee on electoral reform, said the committee might propose a single day for all party nominations, to stem party-hopping.
“We shall ensure IEBC is adequately funded to carry out free and fair nominations of candidates in all political parties in one day. You should not expect a free ticket,” he said.
The public endorsement of Wamalwa by a section of MPs, including Kabete's Ferdinand Waititu, has raised political temperatures and re-united Kiambu Governor William Kabogo with his former foes.
Kabogo, who is battling Waititu for Kiambu governor, on Sunday hosted a group of Mt Kenya legislators, including Nairobi Senator Mike Sonko.
They scoffed at the move to endorse Wamalwa.
In June, Kabogo had jolted Jubilee by publicly declaring Central Kenya's support for DP Ruto is not guaranteed in 2022.
“It's being said Wamalwa was endorsed by Kiambu people, but that is something we have not done,” Kabogo said.
Dagoreti South MP Denis Waweru, who also wants to be Nairobi governor, has called Wamalwa a "project", not a legitimate independent candidate, but he did not identify his owner.
“We want to tell them projects never succeed. There is no seat to be dished away in Nairobi. The people will decide who is elected governor," he said.
Eight counties are hot spots for JP ticket fallout.They are Nairobi, Nakuru, Kiambu, Nyeri, Bomet, Kericho, Nandi and Elgeyo Marakwet.
Governors, in particular, consider themselves third in status after President Uhuru and Ruto and some are requesting direct nominations, bypassing any primary and popular vote.
This could become a crisis.
PNU is on a roll in the Mt Kenya region and offers itself as an alternative home for disgruntled members of the Jubilee House.
Meru Governor Peter Munya says he will defend his seat on PNU, although he backs Uhuru's reelection.