Oil prices seen rising as Kenya gears for production

Weatherford engineers at Tullow Oil's Ngamia 1 rig in Turkana, April 5, 2012. Photo/JOSEPH KARIUKI
Weatherford engineers at Tullow Oil's Ngamia 1 rig in Turkana, April 5, 2012. Photo/JOSEPH KARIUKI

World Bank has said oil prices could rise from $37 (Sh3,744) to $41 (Sh4,149) per barrel as oversupply diminishes in 2016.

The gain, if realised, will be a slight relief for Kenya which is expecting to start commercial production of its oil in 2017.

Further, Tullow Oil on Thursday raised the estimates for the country's oil reserves to 750 million barrels from 600 million.

According to World Bank's commodities markets outlook, the crude oil market rebounded from a low of $25 (Sh2,529) per barrel in mid-January to $40 (Sh4,047) per barrel in April.

This followed production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production, mainly United States shale.

A weaker dollar and improved oil demand sentiment also contributed to the rally.

The rebound would have been higher had OPEC, who are the major oil producers, agreed to a proposed production freeze during a meeting in Doha on April 17.

“We expect slightly higher prices for energy commodities over the course of the year as markets rebalance after a period of oversupply,” World Bank's Senior Economist John Baffes said.

Despite the improved sentiment, World Bank said, the oil market remains oversupplied with stocks near record levels.

Higher prices will give Kenya more returns on its oil, which Energy Cabinet secretary Charles Keter says will be transported by road and railway to the Mombasa Port for export.

This follows delays in the construction of proper infrastructure after Uganda pulled out from a deal with Kenya to build a joint pipeline from Hoima, through Lokichar to Lamu.

Kenya has since said it will build the pipeline alone and expects it to be completed in 2021.

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