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Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Uhuru got more votes in Raila's strongholds

IPSOS Researcher Tom Wolf explains a point at a media briefing yest.
IPSOS Researcher Tom Wolf explains a point at a media briefing yest.

PRESIDENT-elect Uhuru Kenyatta was propelled beyond the 50 percent plus one victory mark by a high voter turnout in his strongholds, according to the latest analysis by Ipsos Synovate. Turnout in Raila’s regions was relatively lower.

“There was was a differential voter turnout, especially in each of their strongholds, with Uhuru having an advantage over Raila on this. Higher voter turn-out in Jubilee strongholds gave Uhuru Kenyatta a clear advantage over his main rival Raila Odinga.

Specifically, in the 20 counties where Kenyatta won most votes, the average turn-out was 88 per cent, while in the 20 counties where Odinga obtained most votes, it was 84 per cent,” Ipsos Synovate’s research analyst Tom Wolf said yesterday.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission last Saturday declared Uhuru the outright winner of the presidential elections after he took 50.07 percent of the votes.

Raila recieved 43.31 percent and came second in the March 4 presidential election. Raila has rejected the result and is expected to file a petition in the Supreme Court today  citing poll irregularities.

Raila’s strongholds were mostly in counties with sparse population which could have caused the low voter turn-out because of the distance to the polling stations, said Wolf. On the other hand, Uhuru’s strongholds were more densely populated so voters were nearer to the polling stations.

According to Ipsos Synovate, Uhuru received 79 percent of the vote in his 19 stronghold areas where only nine percent voted for Raila. However Raila got 66 percent of the vote in his strongholds while 10 percent voted for Uhuru, partly explaining the Jubilee candidate’s advantage.

“In areas that were considered to be Raila’s vote basket, Uhuru Kenyatta garnered 2,080,41 votes (while) in the areas that were considered to be Uhuru’s vote baskets, Raila garnered just 1,577,071 votes,” Wolf said.

“Uhuru was able to attract more voters in Raila’s vote baskets relative to Raila’s performance in his,” he concluded. Wolf said Uhuru might have benefited more than the other seven candidates from undecided voters. Ipsos Synovate said that they made a "key assumption that the IEBC figures with regard to both turnout and results were accurate."

The final result showed that Uhuru gained 5.25 percent to get 50.07 percent of the actual vote, compared to the 44.8 percent support he had according to the last Ipsos survey just 13 days before the election. The last Ipsos poll before the election had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.26 percent.

The last poll by Ipsos had Raila at 44.36 percent but he received 43.31 percent in the election, a fall of 1.05 per cent. While Ipsos did not get it right on the presidential election, they correctly predicted the outcomes in the gubernatorial, senatorial and women representative races in Nairobi, Kiambu, Kakamega, Mombasa, Machakos, Nakuru and Kisumu.

In their analysis, Ipsos thought that Uhuru might have taken the combined loss by UDF’s Musalia Mudavadi, KNC’s Peter Kenneth and Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua of 2.75 percent of the votes from their last opinion poll before the election.

Only ARK’s Mohammed Dida, RBK’s James Kiyiapi and Safina’s Paul Muite made a gain with about 0.5 percent in the IEBC tally compared to the opinion polls.

“Based on regional analysis, it can be assumed that more than half of these ‘lost’ votes were switched to Kenyatta,” Ipsos said yesterday. Wolf also said Jubilee’s ‘get-out-to-vote’ campaign was more effective than the other candidates.

The Ipsos analysis identified Jubilee strongholds with 5.73 million registered voters compared to CORD strongholds with 5.48 million voters, a difference of nearly 247,811.

In the final tally, Uhuru got 4.55 million votes from his 19 strongholds and 505,309 votes from Raila’s strongholds. Raila got 3.6 million votes from his 18 strongholds and 456,041 in Uhuru’s strongholds. Wolf said the overall 86 per cent voter turnout was a record breaker.

“Kenyans voter turnout in this election will be in the Guinness Book of World records soon,” he said. Uhuru’s top 20 counties were Kiambu, Nairobi, Nakuru, Murang’a, Meru, Nyeri, Kericho, Uasin Gishu, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Bomet, Nandi, Embu, Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Elgeyo Marakwet, Narok and Kisii counties.

Raila's top 20 counties were Nairobi, Kisumu, Machakos, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Siaya, Kisii, Makueni, Migori, Kitui, Mombasa, Busia, Bungoma, Kilifi, Nyamira, Narok, Kajiado, Nakuru, Kwale and Uasin Gishu counties.


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